Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 4/25/2025

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on April 25, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the American League. Cleveland currently holds a record of 14-10, while Boston is slightly behind at 14-13. Despite their records being relatively similar, the Guardians' strong bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, hints at their potential edge in the late innings.

On the mound, the Guardians are set to start Ben Lively, who has not had the best luck this year with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 3.86, but his 4.40 xFIP suggests he may be due for a downturn. In contrast, the Red Sox will send Tanner Houck to the rubber. While Houck's 7.66 ERA looks dire, projections indicate he could improve, especially given his ability to generate solid strikeout numbers against a low-strikeout Guardians offense.

Given the Guardians' strong bullpen and Lively's favorable matchup against a high-strikeout Red Sox lineup, there's reason to believe Cleveland might outperform their betting lines despite the odds being set evenly at -110. Today's game total is projected at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations of a competitive matchup in Progressive Field.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Tanner Houck struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his last game started and posted 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Extreme flyball bats like Alex Bregman are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ben Lively.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen ranks as the 7th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Ben Lively is an extreme flyball pitcher (36% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #23 HR venue in the majors today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Kyle Manzardo has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 9.5% rate last year to 18.5% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+3.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.55 Units / 49% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.8, Cleveland Guardians 4.34

• Date: April 25, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

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