Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 4/27/2025

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians and Boston Red Sox prepare for their matchup on April 27, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in a tightly contested American League race. The Guardians sit at 15-11, enjoying a solid season, while the Red Sox come in at 15-14, boasting an above-average start. This game marks the third in their series, and the Guardians will aim to bounce back after a tough loss in the previous game.

Cleveland will send Logan Allen to the mound, who has had an up-and-down start to the season. With a 1-1 record and an excellent ERA of 2.11, Allen has shown flashes of brilliance. However, his xFIP of 4.67 suggests he may have been fortunate so far, and he has struggled with control, evidenced by an 11.1% walk rate. Facing the Red Sox, who rank 2nd in MLB for team strikeouts, Allen's low strikeout rate of 17.8% could be put to the test.

On the opposing side, Boston will counter with Brayan Bello, who has impressed early in the season with a 1-0 record and an impressive ERA of 1.80. However, similar to Allen, Bello's xFIP of 5.39 indicates potential regression. Both pitchers have been projected to allow a similar number of earned runs, but Bello's higher strikeout potential could give the Red Sox an edge.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 20th in MLB, struggling to find their rhythm despite having a solid bullpen ranked 1st. The Red Sox, on the other hand, boast a more potent offense, ranking 11th overall. Given the low total of 7.5 runs set for this game, it may be a battle of the bullpens, where the Guardians have a clear advantage. Bettors should keep an eye on this matchup, as Cleveland's strong bullpen could play a pivotal role in the outcome.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Brayan Bello will "start" for Boston Red Sox today but will be treated as more of an opener and may not remain in the game more than a couple innings.

• Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.

Cleveland's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Romy Gonzalez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Carlos Narvaez, Romy Gonzalez, Trevor Story).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Logan Allen has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.2% more often this season (56.9%) than he did last year (51.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

In the last week's worth of games, Carlos Santana's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen ranks as the best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+3.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Trevor Story has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.15 Units / 27% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.22, Cleveland Guardians 4.13

• Date: April 27, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Logan Allen - Guardians

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