Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 4/11/2025

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face the Boston Red Sox on April 11, 2025, at Guaranteed Rate Field, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The White Sox sit at the bottom of the standings with a dismal 2-10 record, while the Red Sox are hovering around .500 at 7-7. The White Sox are not in contention for the division title and are clearly struggling, making this an important matchup for them to find any semblance of momentum.

In their last game, the Red Sox showcased their offensive prowess, with their best hitter racking up 12 hits over the past week, contributing to a solid performance that has them ranked as the 9th best offense in MLB. In contrast, the White Sox have been struggling offensively, sitting at 26th in the league. With a projected team total of just 3.53 runs, the odds are stacked against the White Sox.

On the mound, Davis Martin is set to start for Chicago. Martin has struggled, with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 5.73 this season, placing him among the bottom tier of pitchers. His low strikeout rate and tendency to allow 4.8 hits per game could prove problematic against a Red Sox offense that has the 1st most strikeouts in MLB, although the matchup could play to his strengths. Meanwhile, Boston will counter with Sean Newcomb, who, despite a rough start to the season, has an xFIP that suggests he might be due for improvement.

The projections favor the Red Sox in this matchup, as they should capitalize on the White Sox's weaknesses. With the game total set at 8.0 runs, bettors may want to keep an eye on the offensive dynamics as the teams clash for the first game of the series.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Sean Newcomb is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #7 HR venue in the league — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Triston Casas has a ton of pop (90th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Davis Martin struggles to strike batters out (24th percentile K%) — great news for Casas.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Jarren Duran has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Davis Martin's change-up percentage has risen by 8% from last year to this one (21.1% to 29.1%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Andrew Vaughn has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last season's 90.3-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Matt Thaiss, Luis Robert Jr.).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.45 Units / 3% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.40 Units / 47% ROI)

• Date: April 11, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Newcomb - Red Sox
  • Davis Martin - White Sox

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