Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins Pick For 7/3/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: July 3, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins will host the Boston Red Sox on July 3, 2024, at LoanDepot Park for the second game of their interleague series. The Marlins, who are having a dismal season with a 30-54 record, will be looking to bounce back against a 44-39 Red Sox team that's been performing above average. In yesterday's matchup, the Red Sox secured a win, adding more momentum to their campaign.

The Marlins will send left-hander Trevor Rogers to the mound. Rogers has struggled this season, with a 1-8 Win/Loss record and a 4.87 ERA, placing him as the 216th best starter in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his below-average ERA, Rogers faces a Red Sox lineup that strikes out frequently, ranking 5th in MLB for most strikeouts. This clash between Rogers' low strikeout rate (17.4 K%) and Boston's high strikeout tendencies could play to the Marlins' advantage.

Right-handed pitcher Brayan Bello will start for the Red Sox. Bello's season has been a mixed bag with a 7-5 record and a high 5.55 ERA, but his underlying metrics tell a different story. His 3.97 xFIP indicates he's been unlucky and could see better results moving forward. Bello's high groundball rate (54%) should neutralize Miami's powerless offense, which ranks 30th in home runs and has the lowest offensive ranking in MLB according to the Power Rankings.

Offensively, the Marlins have been bolstered by Emmanuel Rivera's recent hot streak. Rivera has posted a .400 batting average and a 1.171 OPS over the past week. However, Miami's anemic offense faces a tough challenge against a Red Sox lineup boasting the 7th best offense in MLB. Rafael Devers has been on fire for Boston, hitting .357 with a 1.471 OPS over the last week, including three home runs.

While the Marlins are the underdogs with a moneyline of +125 and an implied win probability of 43%, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a slightly better shot at 46%. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, favored at -145 with a 57% implied win probability, are projected to win 54% of the time. This game promises to be closer than the odds suggest, offering potential value for savvy bettors looking for an edge.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Given that flyball pitchers hold a substantial advantage over flyball batters, Brayan Bello and his 51.9% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position today facing 3 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Connor Wong's true offensive skill to be a .303, providing some evidence that he has had some very good luck this year given the .069 gap between that mark and his actual .372 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (David Hamilton, Romy Gonzalez, Tyler O'Neill).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Trevor Rogers has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.1% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

In the last 7 days, Bryan De La Cruz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Miami's 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the league: #24 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 62 games (+13.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.45 Units / 31% ROI)
• Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 42% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.66 vs Miami Marlins 4.09

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