Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians Pick & Prediction – 4/23/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Overview

• Date: April 23, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
• Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 150, Guardians 1.5 -170
• Money Line: Red Sox -110, Guardians -110
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Boston Red Sox - 50%
• Cleveland Guardians - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Boston Red Sox - 42%
• Cleveland Guardians - 58%

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Game Preview & Prediction

The Cleveland Guardians will be hosting the Boston Red Sox in an American League matchup at Progressive Field on April 23, 2024. The game is expected to be a close one, as both teams have been performing well this season.

The Guardians currently hold a record of 16-6, indicating a strong start to the season. They have been playing excellent baseball and are looking to continue their success. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have a record of 13-10 and have also been having a good season so far.

On the mound, the Guardians are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ben Lively. Lively has started one game this season with a win/loss record of 0-1. His ERA stands at 3.60, which is considered good, and his 2.70 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

Opposing Lively will be the Red Sox's right-handed pitcher Tanner Houck. Houck has started four games this year with a win/loss record of 3-1. He boasts an impressive ERA of 1.35, which indicates excellent performance. However, his 2.62 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky and may regress in future outings.

Comparing the teams' offenses, the Guardians rank as the 9th best offensive team in MLB this season. While their team batting average ranks 14th, their home run production is the lowest in the league, ranking 30th. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 7th. On the other hand, the Red Sox have the 17th best offense overall, but rank 3rd in team batting average.

Looking at the bullpen rankings, the Guardians have the 9th best bullpen in MLB, while the Red Sox rank 20th. This could be an advantage for the Guardians as they head into the later innings.

Considering the pitchers' projections, Lively is expected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 5.2 batters, but also giving up 5.0 hits and 1.5 walks on average. Houck, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 3.7 batters, but also surrendering 5.3 hits and 1.7 walks.

In terms of the betting market, both teams have an implied win probability of 50%, indicating that this is expected to be a closely contested game. The Game Total is currently set at 8.5 runs, which is considered average.

With all these factors in mind, both teams have a chance to come out on top in this matchup. The Guardians will rely on their strong season start and the performance of Ben Lively, while the Red Sox will look to Tanner Houck to continue his impressive pitching. It promises to be an exciting game between these two American League teams.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Because of his large platoon split, Tanner Houck meets a tough challenge being matched up with 8 bats in the projected batting order of opposing handedness in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Masataka Yoshida is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Among all the teams in action today, the best infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Will Brennan is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Cleveland Guardians (18 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy set of hitters of all teams today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 137 games (+14.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 42% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.20 Units / 28% ROI)

Red Sox vs Guardians Prediction: Red Sox 3.99 - Guardians 4.46

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