Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves Pick & Prediction – 5/7/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 7, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

In an exciting interleague matchup, the Atlanta Braves are set to host the Boston Red Sox on May 7, 2024, at Truist Park. The Braves, with a record of 20-12, are having a great season, while the Red Sox, with a record of 19-16, are having an above-average season.

On the mound, the Braves are projected to start right-handed pitcher Reynaldo Lopez, who has been performing above average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, ranking as the #73 best starting pitcher in MLB. Lopez has started five games this year, boasting a Win/Loss record of 2-1 and an excellent ERA of 1.50. However, his 3.56 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future performances.

Opposing Lopez will be Kutter Crawford, another right-handed pitcher for the Red Sox. Crawford has started seven games this season, with a Win/Loss record of 2-1 and an excellent ERA of 1.56. Similar to Lopez, his 3.89 xFIP indicates potential regression in his future performances.

The Braves' offense has been impressive this season, ranking as the 5th best in MLB. They lead the league in team batting average and home runs, which could pose a challenge for Crawford, a high-flyball pitcher. The Red Sox offense, on the other hand, ranks 9th in MLB, with a strong team batting average but an average ranking in home runs.

In terms of bullpens, the Braves rank 10th best in MLB according to our Power Rankings, while the Red Sox rank 25th. This could give the Braves an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -170, implying a 61% chance of winning. The Red Sox, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +145, with an implied win probability of 39%.

With the Braves' strong offense and the advantage in the bullpen, they have a good chance of securing a victory in this matchup. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on any given day. The Red Sox will be looking to defy the odds and come out on top.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (70.8% compared to 61.4% last year) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Tyler O'Neill has been lucky this year, compiling a .433 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .337 — a .096 disparity.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Reynaldo Lopez's 2000-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a big 189-rpm drop off from last year's 2189-rpm figure.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Marcell Ozuna's 16.5% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) grades out in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Atlanta Braves projected offense profiles as the 2nd-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 34 games (+13.10 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 48% ROI)
• Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.20 Units / 94% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.48 vs Atlanta Braves 5.5

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