Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Pick – 4/22/2025

Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

On April 22, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Baltimore Orioles in the first game of their interleague series at Nationals Park. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Nationals sitting at 9-13 and the Orioles at 9-12. The Nationals have been particularly disappointing, ranking 23rd in MLB offensive talent, while their bullpen is rated as the 29th best. Both teams are in need of a spark, and this matchup presents an opportunity for one to gain some momentum.

The Nationals will send Mitchell Parker to the mound, who has had a solid start to the year with a 2-1 record and an impressive 1.85 ERA. However, his 4.44 xFIP suggests he may have been lucky, and he projects to allow 2.7 earned runs today. Parker's high groundball rate of 50% could work in his favor against the powerful Orioles lineup, which has hit 31 home runs this season, ranking 6th in MLB.

On the other hand, Dean Kremer will take the ball for the Orioles. His 2-2 record is overshadowed by a troubling 6.41 ERA, though projections indicate he may perform better going forward with a 4.53 xFIP. Kremer's struggles include allowing 5.8 hits and 1.7 walks on average, making him vulnerable against even an average offense.

With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup could be closer than the records suggest, making the Nationals' +115 moneyline an intriguing option for bettors looking for value in a game that could swing either way.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Because flyball hitters have a substantial advantage over groundball pitchers, Dean Kremer and his 35.4% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult spot in this outing being matched up with 0 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jordan Westburg has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Ryan Mountcastle has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

James Wood has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.3-mph average to last year's 96.6-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The 4th-worst projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 8 games at home (+8.20 Units / 79% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• Jose Tena has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.98, Washington Nationals 4.51

• Date: April 22, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals

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