Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction – 3/28/2025

• Date: March 28, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Charlie Morton - Orioles
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays host the Baltimore Orioles on March 28, 2025, both teams are looking to establish their identities early in the season. The Blue Jays, having started the season with a record of 0-1, are coming off a disappointing loss, while the Orioles sit at 1-0 after a strong opening game. This American League East matchup is crucial for both teams, especially for the Blue Jays, who are hoping to turn their fortunes around after a rough start.

On the mound, Kevin Gausman is slated to start for the Blue Jays. Despite being ranked 150th among MLB starting pitchers, Gausman projects to pitch an average of 5.4 innings today, allowing 2.6 earned runs. However, he has struggled with his hit and walk projections, allowing 5.1 hits and 1.7 walks, which could be problematic against a potent Orioles lineup. Conversely, Charlie Morton, projected to start for the Orioles, is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB, with a poor strikeout rate and a tendency to allow 5.1 hits and 2.0 walks in just 4.9 innings on average.

The betting odds reflect a close contest, with the Blue Jays having a moneyline of -130 and an implied team total of 4.45 runs, while the Orioles sit at +110 with an average team total of 4.05 runs. Given the Blue Jays' need for a bounce-back performance and the projections indicating a favorable matchup against Morton, they may be poised to capitalize on this opportunity, despite their current struggles. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, fans can expect an exciting battle at Rogers Centre.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Charlie Morton has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 5.3 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jackson Holliday is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Toronto (#1-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kevin Gausman in the 79th percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games at home (+12.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 81 games (+16.00 Units / 17% ROI)

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.