Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 5/6/2025

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on May 6, 2025, at Target Field, both teams are struggling to find their footing. The Twins stand at 15-20, while the Orioles trail closely behind at 13-20. Recent performances have highlighted their difficulties, with both teams battling inconsistencies.

On the mound, the Twins are set to start Pablo Lopez, who boasts a solid ERA of 2.25, making him one of the more reliable arms in their rotation. Lopez has a Win/Loss record of 2-2 in five starts this season and ranks as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to the leading MLB projection system. His ability to minimize walks (3.6 BB%) could be beneficial against an Orioles lineup that doesn't draw many walks, ranking 28th in that category.

Conversely, Cade Povich will take the mound for the Orioles, carrying a less favorable ERA of 5.16 with a Win/Loss record of 1-2 over six starts. While his 4.51 xFIP suggests he might be due for some positive regression, his inability to manage earned runs effectively could be a concern against a Minnesota offense that, despite ranking 22nd in MLB, still has potential to capitalize on opposing mistakes.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating average expectations for both offenses. The Twins are favored with a moneyline of -155, reflecting a higher implied total of 4.66 runs, while the Orioles, though underdogs, maintain an average implied team total of 3.84 runs. With both teams eager to turn around their seasons, this matchup promises to be crucial in establishing momentum.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest among every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Cedric Mullins will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Coby Mayo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Considering that groundball hitters have a substantial advantage over flyball pitchers, Pablo Lopez and his 46.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot in this game being matched up with 2 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme flyball bats like Byron Buxton usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Cade Povich.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Minnesota Twins have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 16.6° angle is among the highest in the majors this year (#5 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.34 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Royce Lewis has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.10 Units / 31% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.81, Minnesota Twins 5.07

• Date: May 6, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cade Povich - Orioles
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

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