Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 4/25/2025

Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On April 25, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Baltimore Orioles at Comerica Park for the first game of their series. Detroit currently boasts a strong 15-10 record, while Baltimore struggles at 10-14. The Tigers have recently displayed solid form, and they are coming off a series where they showcased their potential, taking two of three games against the San Diego Padres.

Detroit will start Casey Mize, who, despite being ranked 127th among MLB starting pitchers, has posted a commendable 2.22 ERA this season. Mize has been effective, compiling a 3-1 record over four starts. However, projections indicate he may have been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP sits at 4.43, suggesting possible regression ahead. He typically pitches around 5.2 innings and allows an average of 2.7 earned runs, making him an average performer on that front.

On the other hand, Baltimore's Brandon Young will take the mound. Young has struggled with a 6.75 ERA in his only start, although his xFIP of 4.86 hints that he could be due for some positive variance. Young's low strikeout rate of 15.8% poses a challenge against a Tigers offense that ranks 6th in strikeouts, giving him a tough matchup.

From an offensive perspective, the Tigers rank 14th overall, while the Orioles come in at 18th. Detroit’s solid consistency with the bat is backed by their strong bullpen, ranked 3rd in MLB, likely giving them an advantage late in the game.

With Detroit’s implied team total set at 4.45 runs, the betting markets foresee a close contest, but the Tigers' superior pitching and solid home form position them well to secure a win against the struggling Orioles.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Brandon Young is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.2% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #25 HR venue among all stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Typically, hitters like Jackson Holliday who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Casey Mize.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Positioned 2nd-lowest in baseball this year, Baltimore Orioles hitters collectively have put up a 11.1° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (an advanced metric to study power skills).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Casey Mize's change-up rate has jumped by 6% from last season to this one (18.1% to 24.1%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

In the last 7 days, Kerry Carpenter's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 49% ROI)
• Jordan Westburg has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.40 Units / 28% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.55, Detroit Tigers 4.26

• Date: April 25, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Young - Orioles
  • Casey Mize - Tigers

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