Baltimore Orioles VS Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Preview – 04/09/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Overview

• Date: April 9, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
• Umpire:
• Run Line: Orioles -1.5 120, Red Sox 1.5 -140
• Money Line: Orioles -140, Red Sox 120
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 56%
• Boston Red Sox - 44%

Projected Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 53.64%
• Boston Red Sox - 46.36%

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Game Preview & Prediction

The Boston Red Sox are gearing up to face off against the Baltimore Orioles in an American League East matchup at Fenway Park on April 9, 2024. The Red Sox, with a solid record of 7-3 this season, are having a great start to the year. On the other hand, the Orioles hold a respectable 5-4 record, indicating a good season so far.

The Red Sox, as the home team, have the advantage of playing in front of their fans at Fenway Park. They have been performing well offensively, ranking 18th in MLB overall. However, their strength lies in their high team batting average, where they rank an impressive 3rd in the league. The Orioles, on the other hand, rank 21st in MLB overall, indicating a weaker offensive performance. Their team batting average ranks 14th, showing average hitting talent.

In terms of pitching, the Red Sox are projected to start Brayan Bello, a right-handed pitcher. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Bello is considered above average and ranks as the 75th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 in MLB. He has started two games this season, boasting a win-loss record of 1-0. While his ERA of 5.40 may seem high, his 3.54 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better in future games.

The Orioles, on the other hand, will have Corbin Burnes on the mound. Burnes, also a right-handed pitcher, is considered elite according to our Power Rankings, ranking as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB. He has started two games this season, holding a win-loss record of 1-0. With an impressive ERA of 2.31, Burnes has been a dominant force on the mound.

Given the current odds, the Red Sox have an implied win probability of 46% based on their moneyline of +110, while the Orioles have a 54% implied win probability with a moneyline of -130. This suggests that the betting markets anticipate a close game.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Compared to the average pitcher, Corbin Burnes has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an extra 5.8 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme groundball bats like Ramon Urias usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Adley Rutschman, the Orioles's expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Baltimore Orioles have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Brayan Bello in this game, which is especially troublesome given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Over the past two weeks, Enmanuel Valdez has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games at home (+9.00 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 83 of their last 138 games (+25.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Austin Hays has hit the Hits Under in his last 7 away games (+9.45 Units / 135% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles 4.66 vs Boston Red Sox 4.05

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