Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox Pick & Prediction – 5/25/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 25, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles
  • Erick Fedde - White Sox

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Chicago White Sox are set to face off against the Baltimore Orioles on May 25, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox, currently enduring a tough season with a record of 15-37, will be looking to turn their fortunes around as the home team. On the other hand, the Orioles have been enjoying a stellar season, boasting a record of 31-18.

Taking the mound for the White Sox is right-handed pitcher Erick Fedde. Fedde, ranked as the #97 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has shown promise with a Win/Loss record of 4-1 and an impressive ERA of 3.10 this season. However, his 3.81 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate so far and could face challenges going forward.

Opposing Fedde will be Albert Suarez, a right-handed pitcher for the Orioles. Suarez has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. While he has a solid ERA of 1.78, his 4.04 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

This game marks the third in a series between the White Sox and the Orioles. In their last meeting, the Orioles emerged victorious with a 6-4 win over the White Sox. The Orioles were heavily favored in that game, with a closing Moneyline price of -245 and an implied win probability of 68%. The White Sox, on the other hand, were considered significant underdogs, with a closing Moneyline price of +205 and an implied win probability of 32%.

Offensively, the White Sox have struggled this season, ranking as the worst team in MLB. Their batting average, home run count, and stolen bases all rank in the bottom third of the league. In contrast, the Orioles have been a force to be reckoned with, ranking as the 7th best team in MLB. They have displayed solid hitting, with an average batting average and a respectable home run count.

Based on the current odds, the Orioles are the clear favorites with a moneyline of -170 and an implied win probability of 61%. The White Sox, on the other hand, are significant underdogs with a moneyline of +145 and an implied win probability of 39%. THE BAT X projects the Orioles to have a 58% chance of winning, while the White Sox are projected to have a 42% chance.

With the Orioles' strong performance this season and the White Sox's struggles, it appears that the odds are in favor of the Orioles. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the White Sox will be determined to turn their season around. It will be an intriguing matchup to watch as these two teams take the field.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Albert Suarez has a reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged facing 6 same-handed bats in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Ryan Mountcastle's quickness has declined this season. His 28.2 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.62 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The 5th-best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Baltimore Orioles.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

In his last start, Erick Fedde struggled when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to post 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Paul DeJong is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Baltimore (#2-worst of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+1.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.85 Units / 26% ROI)
• Paul DeJong has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.45 Units / 59% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.05 vs Chicago White Sox 4.06

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