Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction – 4/16/2025

Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On April 16, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays welcome the Atlanta Braves to Rogers Centre for the third game of their interleague series. The Blue Jays come into this matchup with a solid 10-8 record, riding the momentum of a recent victory. In their last game, Toronto managed to score a decisive win, showcasing their offensive strength, particularly from their best hitter, who has been on fire lately.

Toronto's Chris Bassitt is slated to take the mound, and he has been impressive this season with a 1-0 record and a stellar 0.98 ERA. Though his 2.60 xFIP suggests some potential luck in his performance, he remains an average pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, where he ranks 100th out of approximately 350. Bassitt projects to pitch around 5.8 innings and allow roughly 2.9 earned runs, but his struggle with walks—projected at 1.7—could be concerning against a Braves lineup looking to capitalize on any mistakes.

On the other side, Spencer Strider brings his elite skills to the mound for Atlanta. With a Power Rankings position of 6th, Strider is expected to pitch 5.7 innings and allow about 2.4 earned runs. His strikeout rate of 6.5 is promising for a strong performance, although his projected hits allowed (5.0) and walks (1.5) indicate he may be vulnerable against a steadily improving Blue Jays offense, which ranks 13th overall in MLB.

Despite the Blue Jays being underdogs with a moneyline of +125, their offensive efficiency, particularly in batting average (5th in MLB), could tilt the game in their favor. The Braves, struggling at 5-12 this season, will need their best hitter to maintain the hot streak he’s been on, which includes a remarkable 0.467 batting average over the last week. Ultimately, both teams have their strengths, but the projections suggest that this matchup could be closer than the odds imply, especially given Bassitt's recent form.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Strider's 96.3-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 95th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Sean Murphy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Compared to their .337 overall projected rate, the .325 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Atlanta Braves projected offense in this game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit a bit watered down.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #2 HR venue among all parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Will Wagner's average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 87.7-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 81.2-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Toronto Blue Jays hitters collectively rank 25th- in the game for power since the start of last season when judging by their 7.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.20 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 86 away games (+5.35 Units / 6% ROI)
• Sean Murphy has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+13.50 Units / 193% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.85, Toronto Blue Jays 4.24

• Date: April 16, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Strider - Braves
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays

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