Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction – 4/15/2025

Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Atlanta Braves on April 15, 2025, in Rogers Centre, marking the second game of their series. The Blue Jays currently hold a record of 9-8 and are enjoying an above-average season, while the Braves sit at 5-11, struggling significantly. In their previous matchup, the Braves defeated the Blue Jays 8-4, capitalizing on an offensive surge.

Today’s pitching matchup features Kevin Gausman for the Blue Jays, coming off a remarkable complete game shutout in his last start on April 9, where he struck out 10 batters. Gausman has a solid ERA of 2.33 this season, despite a higher xFIP of 4.09, indicating he may face some regression moving forward. He's projected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing approximately 3.1 earned runs and striking out 5.9 batters on average.

On the other side, Spencer Schwellenbach takes the mound for the Braves. Schwellenbach has been impressive with a minuscule ERA of 0.45, yet his xFIP of 2.42 suggests he might also be riding a bit of luck. He’s projected to pitch 5.8 innings, striking out 4.3 batters, but he has struggled with allowing hits and walks.

From an offensive perspective, the Blue Jays rank 13th in MLB overall and boast the 5th best batting average this season. However, their power numbers are concerning, ranking 28th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Braves' offense has been mediocre, ranking 18th overall and 19th in batting average.

With the Blue Jays’ strong pitching, especially with Gausman's recent performance, and the Braves' inconsistent offense, Toronto may have the edge in this matchup despite the betting markets suggesting a close contest.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #2 HR venue among all parks — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Toronto's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Michael Harris II, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The 3rd-best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Atlanta Braves.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Kevin Gausman has gone to his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 58% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Alejandro Kirk has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 2.5% seasonal rate to 12.5% in the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 7.2% Barrel% of the Toronto Blue Jays ranks them as the #25 team in MLB since the start of last season by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games at home (+12.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 95 games (+20.60 Units / 20% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.18, Toronto Blue Jays 4.16

• Date: April 15, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

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