Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction – 4/14/2025

Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On April 14, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Atlanta Braves at Rogers Centre in what marks the first game of an interleague series between these two teams. The Blue Jays enter the matchup with a solid 9-7 record, riding a wave of momentum after a recent win. In contrast, the Braves have struggled this season, currently sitting at 4-11 and facing a tough uphill battle.

Toronto's projected starter, Easton Lucas, has been a bright spot for the Blue Jays, boasting an impressive 0.00 ERA in his two starts this year. However, advanced projections suggest he may have benefited from some good fortune, as his 2.98 xFIP indicates he could regress. Though Lucas is a left-handed pitcher with a high strikeout rate (29.0 K%), he faces a Braves offense that ranks 6th in MLB for strikeouts, potentially giving him an edge.

On the other side, Atlanta’s Grant Holmes has struggled to find his footing, holding a 4.00 ERA, which, while decent, is backed by a concerning 4.65 xFIP. He too has a high strikeout percentage (26.8 K%), but he’ll be up against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 6th in the league for fewest strikeouts, suggesting that his strength may not play well against this offense.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 15th overall, with an outstanding batting average of .290, indicating they can capitalize on Holmes's inconsistencies. The Braves, while average in many areas, have a lackluster 26th ranking in stolen bases, showing their offensive deficiencies.

With both teams projected to score around 4.50 runs, bettors should keep an eye on the value in Toronto, especially given their recent form and the potential for Lucas to shine against a strikeout-prone lineup.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Grant Holmes's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (61.1% since the start of last season) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Michael Harris II is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Alan Roden's average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 83.9-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 81.2-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 12 games (+9.70 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.65 Units / 8% ROI)
• Ernie Clement has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.65 Units / 107% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.73, Toronto Blue Jays 5.3

• Date: April 14, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grant Holmes - Braves
  • Easton Lucas - Blue Jays

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