Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 4/12/2025

Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on April 12, 2025, both teams are struggling early in the season, with the Rays sitting at 6-7 and the Braves at 3-10. This interleague matchup marks the second game of the series, and the Rays will look to improve their fortunes at George M. Steinbrenner Field after a win in their previous game.

On the mound, the Rays are projected to start Drew Rasmussen, who is ranked as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Rasmussen has shown promise, projecting to allow only 2.1 earned runs with 5.2 strikeouts over an average of 5.3 innings. However, he also has troubling projections, allowing 4.5 hits and 1.3 walks, which could lead to trouble if the Braves capitalize on those opportunities.

Opposing him will be AJ Smith-Shawver, who has struggled significantly, being ranked among the worst pitchers in MLB. His projections indicate he will pitch just 4.7 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs, 4.3 hits, and a concerning 1.8 walks. Given the discrepancies in performance, this matchup heavily favors Rasmussen, particularly with the Braves’ offense still trying to find its rhythm.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Rays are favored with a moneyline of -140, indicating an implied team total of 4.54 runs. If Rasmussen can deliver on his better projections, the Rays could find themselves on the winning side of this matchup.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. AJ Smith-Shawver must realize this, because he has utilized his secondary pitches a lot since the start of last season: 62.2% of the time, checking in at the 85th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Among all SPs, Drew Rasmussen's fastball spin rate of 2524.6 rpm grades out in the 95th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.06, Tampa Bay Rays 4.48

• Date: April 12, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • AJ Smith-Shawver - Braves
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays

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