Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 1 Pick & Preview – 6/26/2024

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 1 Details

• Date: June 26, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals

Braves vs Cardinals Game 1 Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 1 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 1 Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals host the Atlanta Braves on June 26, 2024, in the first game of a doubleheader at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals enter this game with a 40-37 record, while the Braves are 43-33 going into the first game of today's twin bill in St. Louis. As of now, both teams are occupying top-three spots in the National League Wild Card race, adding another layer of significance to this contest.

The Cardinals will start Kyle Gibson in this contest, who enters this game with a 5-2 record and a 3.44 ERA. Gibson faces a Braves lineup ranked 12th in offensive prowess but struggling at the plate with a .250 average (15th in MLB) and 13th in home runs.

On the mound for the Braves is Reynaldo Lopez, who comes into this contest with a 5-2 record, the same as his counterpart in Gibson. But Lopez has been phenomenal in terms of his ERA, posting a 1.57 ERA to this point in the season. Lopez has not allowed an earned run in either of his last two starts in 11 innings of work over those two outings.

Offensively, the Cardinals have been inconsistent, ranking 20th overall. Brendan Donovan has been their standout performer, both overall and in the past week, boasting a .550 batting average and 1.500 OPS over his last five games. Meanwhile, the Braves' best hitter this season, Marcell Ozuna, has been a force with 21 home runs and a stellar .314 average.

The bullpen matchup is close, with St. Louis ranked 9th and Atlanta 8th in our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Given the pitching and offensive dynamics involved, this game could hinge on which starting pitcher can give their team more going into a day where both bullpens will be taxed. The Braves are favored, with a current moneyline of -135, reflecting a slight edge in this pivotal contest.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen profiles as the 8th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Brendan Donovan's batting average skill is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 8 games at home (+8.60 Units / 91% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 68 games (+17.80 Units / 24% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 1 Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.36 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.7

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