Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 3/28/2025

• Date: March 28, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on March 28, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the early season. The Padres come into this matchup with a 1-0 record, displaying signs of a strong season ahead, while the Braves are struggling with a 0-1 start. This game marks the second in their series, and the Padres will look to build momentum after a solid opening game.

Projected starters Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez offer an intriguing pitching duel. Cease enters the game ranked as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, showcasing his potential as a key asset for the Padres. He projects to pitch an average of 5.1 innings while allowing only 1.9 earned runs and striking out 6.4 batters. However, his projected metrics do show some weaknesses, particularly in hits allowed (3.9) and walks (2.0), which could open the door for the Braves.

On the other hand, Lopez, ranked 88th among starting pitchers, faces a challenging task. His projection indicates he will pitch only 4.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, but with a concerning rate of 4.4 hits and 1.7 walks. This might give the Padres an opportunity to capitalize on Lopez's struggles.

With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, betting markets reflect a tight match-up. The Padres hold a slight edge with a moneyline of -130, suggesting that while the matchup is expected to be close, the projections favor them to secure a victory at Petco Park. Fans and bettors alike will be watching closely to see if the Padres can continue their strong start against a Braves team in desperate need of a turnaround.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Reynaldo Lopez to have a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The Atlanta Braves have 6 batters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Dylan Cease in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

When estimating his batting average ability, Luis Arraez is projected as the best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 86 games (+17.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 96 of their last 155 games (+36.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.50 Units / 21% ROI)

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