Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 5/10/2025

On May 10, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Atlanta Braves at PNC Park in what is shaping up to be a critical matchup for both teams. Currently, the Pirates sit at 13-26, struggling through a dismal season, while the Braves hold an 18-20 record, reflecting a below-average performance thus far. Last night, the Pirates managed to pull off a victory against the Braves, getting a surprising victory.

Pittsburgh's Andrew Heaney is projected to start and has been solid with a 3.18 ERA, but his ranking as the 213th best starting pitcher in MLB indicates concerns about consistency. Heaney's metrics suggest he may be overperforming, as his 3.90 xFIP hints at potential regression. He'll need to navigate a Braves lineup that ranks 16th in MLB but could pose challenges given Heaney's below-average strikeout rate of 4.7, combined with 1.7 projected walks today.

On the mound for Atlanta is AJ Smith-Shawver, who also has issues of his own, as he ranks among the worst in MLB. Despite a commendable 3.00 ERA, his 4.01 xFIP signals similar luck concerns as Heaney. Smith-Shawver projects to pitch just under five innings, and while he has a slightly better average strikeout rate, he'll face a Pirates offense ranked 28th in MLB, making it difficult for them to capitalize on any mistakes.

With both teams underperforming, the Pirates' moneyline currently sits at +120, suggesting that the betting market sees them as considerable underdogs, while the Braves are favored at -140. Despite the challenges, this matchup provides a glimpse into how each team might shift their fortunes moving forward. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting a balanced expectation for scoring, despite both teams’ offensive struggles this season.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

AJ Smith-Shawver is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #25 HR venue in the league today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

In the last two weeks' worth of games, Sean Murphy's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

In today's game, Ozzie Albies is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.6% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney's four-seam fastball percentage has decreased by 6.1% from last year to this one (49.9% to 43.8%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Andrew McCutchen has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph dropping to 79.7-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Alexander Canario, Oneil Cruz, Matt Gorski).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+5.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in his last 20 games (+20.00 Units / 49% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.33, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.69

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • AJ Smith-Shawver - Braves
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates

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