Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 4/28/2025

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies will host the Atlanta Braves on April 28, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams find themselves struggling early in the season, with the Rockies sitting at 4-23 and the Braves at 12-15. While the Rockies have had a terrible season thus far, they will hope to rebound after losing their last game against the Cincinnati Reds by a score of 8-1.

On the mound, the Rockies will start Ryan Feltner, who has an ERA of 3.86 this year, indicating he has been somewhat lucky as his 4.71 FIP suggests he may perform worse going forward. Feltner is projected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing 3.3 earned runs on average, which isn’t ideal. On the other side, the Braves will counter with Bryce Elder, whose ERA of 5.57 reflects a more troubling performance, but his underlying metrics suggest he might be due for some positive regression.

Offensively, the Rockies rank a dismal 25th in the league, while the Braves sit in a more respectable 12th. This matchup could tilt in favor of the Braves, particularly given that Bryce Elder's low strikeout rate may benefit from facing the Rockies, who lead the league in strikeouts.

With a Game Total currently set at 10.5 runs, bettors should brace for a potentially high-scoring affair, especially given the Rockies' reputation for high-octane games at Coors Field. The Rockies might be underdogs in this matchup with a moneyline of +150, but they will look to capitalize on any weaknesses the Braves display.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bryce Elder has utilized his secondary offerings 5.3% more often this year (50%) than he did last year (44.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Ozzie Albies has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Atlanta Braves bats jointly rank 4th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 11.4% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Ryan Feltner's fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this year (93.1 mph) below where it was last year (94.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Jordan Beck has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.4-mph to 99.4-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to record the 5th-most runs (5.15 on average) on the slate today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• Bryce Elder has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+3.20 Units / 52% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.99, Colorado Rockies 5.15

• Date: April 28, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Elder - Braves
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies

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