Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 4/27/2025

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On April 27, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field for the third game of their series. The stakes are higher for Arizona, which sits in a better position at 14-13, showcasing an above-average season. Meanwhile, Atlanta is struggling at 12-14, reflecting a below-average start. In their previous matchup, the Braves picked up the win, which could further boost their confidence as they face off again.

Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt, projected to start, has been a mixed bag. Although he boasts an impressive 4-1 record and a stellar ERA of 2.73, advanced metrics suggest some luck has bolstered his performance. His 3.43 xFIP indicates potential regression, as he projects to allow an average of 2.8 earned runs and 5.7 hits in 5.7 innings. This could be crucial against a Braves lineup that ranks 8th in MLB for home runs, giving them the power to capitalize on any mistakes.

Opposing Pfaadt is Spencer Schwellenbach, who has earned a reputation as one of the league's top pitchers. With a 2.56 ERA and a high rank of 16th among starting pitchers, his control is a strong asset—evidenced by his low walk rate of 4.0 BB%. However, he faces a challenging Diamondbacks offense, ranked 3rd best in MLB, which is capable of exploiting any pitch left over the plate.

Both teams are evenly matched with current moneylines set at -110, reflecting the close competition expected. The total for the game is 8.5 runs, suggesting a potentially offensive showdown, especially with the Diamondbacks' hitting prowess. While Atlanta's recent slump raises concerns, Pfaadt's ability to manage his luck will be pivotal as Arizona looks to solidify its standing in this tightly contested matchup.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach will "start" for Atlanta Braves in today's game but will fill the role of an opener and may not last more than a couple frames.

• Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.

Matt Olson may have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Atlanta Braves batters as a group grade out 4th- in baseball for power this year when using their 11.4% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (53.7% compared to 44.4% last season) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Spencer Schwellenbach.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Josh Naylor pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+14.00 Units / 175% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.92, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.25

• Date: April 27, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

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