Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Prediction – 6/24/2024

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: June 24, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Lance Lynn - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On June 24, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Atlanta Braves at Busch Stadium in the first game of their series. Both teams are vying for positioning in the National League, with the Braves having a solid season at 43-32 and the Cardinals hovering around average at 39-37.

Starting on the mound for the Cardinals is Lance Lynn, who has been consistently average this season with a 4.08 ERA over 15 starts, a 2-3 win/loss record, and a ranking as the 111th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Lynn projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allow 2.8 earned runs, and strike out 5.5 batters on average today. However, his projected 5.3 hits and 1.6 walks allowed could be problematic.

The Braves counter with Spencer Schwellenbach, who, despite a 4.98 ERA that indicates a rough start to his season, has a peripheral indicator suggesting better days ahead with a 4.22 xFIP. Schwellenbach is ranked 89th among starting pitchers, pointing to above-average potential. Today's projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, estimate him to pitch 5.1 innings, allow 2.4 earned runs, and strike out 4.3 batters. However, like Lynn, Schwellenbach projects to allow a high number of hits (5.0) and walks (1.5).

Offensively, the Braves hold the edge with the 12th best lineup in MLB, compared to the Cardinals' 20th ranked offense. Sean Murphy has been a standout for Atlanta, hitting .400 with a 1.304 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Alec Burleson has been a bright spot for the Cardinals, boasting a .409 average and 1.277 OPS in his last six games.

Betting markets have the Braves as slight favorites with a moneyline of -125 and an implied win probability of 53%. The Cardinals, at +100 and an implied win probability of 47%, will look to leverage home-field advantage and their solid bullpen to edge out a close one. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations of a balanced offensive output.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Jarred Kelenic hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Lance Lynn will average a total of 5.6 strikeouts in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Carpenter in the 3rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Compared to their .313 overall projected rate, the .302 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the St. Louis Cardinals projected batting order in this game suggests this version of the lineup considerably a bit watered down.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 68 games (+17.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+12.15 Units / 20% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.64 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.22

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.