Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 5/3/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 3, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League matchup. Both teams are closely contending for a Wild Card spot, with the Phillies holding an 18-14 record and the Diamondbacks slightly behind at 17-15.

In their last outing, the Phillies won the first game of the series. Aaron Nola is set to take the mound for Philadelphia, despite struggling this season with a 0-5 record and a 5.40 ERA. However, the advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a turnaround, as his 3.58 xFIP indicates he has faced some bad luck. Nola projects to pitch an average of 5.9 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.7 hits and 1.5 walks per game could be a concern against a potent Diamondbacks lineup.

On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt has been a pleasant surprise for Arizona, boasting a 5-1 record and an impressive 2.78 ERA. Yet, the projections indicate he might be overperforming, as his 3.36 xFIP suggests he could regress. Pfaadt will likely pitch around 5.5 innings and is projected to allow 3.3 earned runs, which puts him in a good position to challenge a Phillies offense that ranks 12th overall in MLB.

As for the hitters, the Diamondbacks feature a lineup that ranks 4th in MLB, which gives them an edge. With a game total currently set at 9.5 runs, bettors should anticipate a competitive matchup where both pitching and hitting will play crucial roles.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's 92.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.3-mph decrease from last season's 93.9-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Eugenio Suarez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.4-mph average to last year's 92.6-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Given that groundball pitchers hold a substantial advantage over groundball batters, Aaron Nola and his 43.2% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong spot in today's game going up against 2 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball hitters like Johan Rojas tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Philadelphia ranks as the #4 offense in the majors when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle band that tends to result the most in base hits (45.3% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Aaron Nola has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.30 Units / 44% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.09, Philadelphia Phillies 5.01

• Date: May 3, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

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