Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees Prediction – 4/1/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On April 1, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Yankee Stadium in what is the first matchup of the series between these two teams. Both teams are off to a decent start this season, with the Yankees holding a record of 3-0, showcasing their strong offensive firepower as they rank 1st in MLB in home runs and 3rd overall in offensive capability. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are at an even 2-2, benefiting from an impressive 1st place ranking in batting average.

On the mound, the Yankees project to start Will Warren, who has struggled early in the season, ranking as just the 239th best starting pitcher in MLB. Warren projects to pitch an average of 4.8 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs, but his below-average strikeout rate of 4.0 and concerning 4.4 hits allowed could present challenges against Arizona's potent lineup. Conversely, the Diamondbacks will counter with Corbin Burnes, a premier pitcher ranked 40th in MLB. Burnes is projected to pitch a bit longer, averaging 5.1 innings with a solid earned run projection of 2.0.

While both teams have average bullpens, the Yankees' offense should have an edge against an up-and-coming Diamondbacks pitching staff. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, bookmakers suggest a closely contested matchup, as reflected by both teams holding a moneyline of -110 and an average implied team total of 4.25 runs each.

In their last game, the Yankees displayed their offensive prowess as they continue their strong start to the season. If Will Warren can manage to keep the Diamondbacks at bay, the Yankees' powerful lineup may very well secure them a victory in this enticing interleague battle.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Corbin Burnes's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (92.2% since the start of last season) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Ketel Marte's 94-mph average exit velocity is one of the best in baseball since the start of last season: 98th percentile.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the luckiest offense in the game since the start of last season.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Among all starting pitchers, Will Warren's fastball spin rate of 2503 rpm grades out in the 93rd percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Arizona's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Austin Wells, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The 10.7% Barrel% of the New York Yankees ranks them as the #1 group of hitters in the majors since the start of last season by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 80 of their last 144 games (+15.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 86 games (+26.80 Units / 28% ROI)
• Austin Wells has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+10.10 Units / 337% ROI)

• Date: April 1, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - D-Backs
  • Will Warren - Yankees

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