Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees Pick – 4/3/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 3, 2025, both teams are enjoying strong starts to the season, with records of 3-2 and 4-2, respectively. This Interleague matchup is crucial for both teams as they look to establish themselves early in the campaign. The Yankees boast the best offense in MLB, highlighted by their power, ranking 1st in home runs, while the Diamondbacks sit at 5th overall.

On the mound, the Yankees are projected to start Carlos Carrasco, who has had a rough start to the season with an ERA of 13.50 and has yet to make a start, appearing only once in relief. His projections indicate he may struggle, averaging just 4.7 innings pitched and allowing 2.8 earned runs. In contrast, Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks is coming off a solid start, holding a 1.69 ERA and a 1-0 record this season. However, his projections suggest he may face challenges against a powerful Yankees lineup.

The Yankees’ bullpen ranks 14th in MLB, while the Diamondbacks are slightly better at 13th, providing both teams with average relief options if needed. With the Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs, bettors might find value in the Yankees’ implied team total of 4.92 runs. Given the Yankees' offensive capabilities, they have a strong chance to capitalize on this matchup.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense projects as the best out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

This year, there has been a decline in Josh Naylor's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.16 ft/sec last year to 24.64 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Carlos Carrasco to have a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Arizona's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Austin Wells, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The New York Yankees projected offense projects as the strongest of the day in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+16.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 86 games (+26.80 Units / 28% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+11.40 Units / 49% ROI)

• Date: April 3, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs
  • Carlos Carrasco - Yankees

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.