Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Prediction – 5/1/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On May 1, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field, marking the third game of their series. Both teams find themselves in differing positions within the standings, as the Mets stand strong with a 21-10 record, while the Diamondbacks sit at 16-14. While the Mets’ recent form has been impressive, the Diamondbacks did beat them yesterday and will look to do so again today.

Kodai Senga is projected to take the mound for the Mets, boasting a solid 3-1 record and an exceptional ERA of 1.26. While Senga’s 3.93 xFIP suggests he could regress, he still projects to allow only 2.1 earned runs in 5.5 innings, which positions him well against an Arizona offense that currently ranks 4th in MLB. Conversely, Zac Gallen will toe the rubber for the Diamondbacks. Gallen's 1-4 record and 5.57 ERA indicate struggles, though his 4.33 xFIP hints that he might have been unlucky this season. Gallen is projected to allow 2.6 earned runs while pitching 5.8 innings today, facing a Mets lineup that ranks 8th best in MLB.

Despite Gallen's name recognition, the projections paint a more favorable picture for Senga and the Mets, who not only have the advantage in starting pitching but also benefit from an offense that’s performing well overall, even if their team batting average sits at an average 14th in MLB. With the Mets favored at -155 on the moneyline, bettors might find value in this matchup as they look to capitalize on Senga’s solid start against a Diamondbacks squad that needs to find consistency.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen's fastball velocity has decreased 1.4 mph this season (92.4 mph) below where it was last year (93.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (92% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Arizona Diamondbacks in today's game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .315, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .331 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Given that groundball hitters hold a notable edge over flyball pitchers, Kodai Senga and his 35.8% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in this outing going up against 1 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Brandon Nimmo may have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 27 games (+7.65 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.65 Units / 50% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 away games (+7.10 Units / 28% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.85, New York Mets 4.29

• Date: May 1, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Kodai Senga - Mets

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