Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Prediction – 4/29/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On April 29, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Mets, currently enjoying a strong season with a 20-9 record, will look to build on their success against a Diamondbacks squad that stands at 15-13. Notably, David Peterson is set to take the mound for New York, following a solid start to the season. Meanwhile, Eduardo Rodriguez will represent Arizona, aiming to improve on his 1-2 record.

Both pitchers are left-handed, but their seasons have taken different trajectories. Peterson, ranked as the 102nd best starting pitcher according to advanced statistics, has posted a 3.29 ERA, indicating he has enjoyed a bit of luck this year. However, his projections suggest he might struggle, especially given that he allows an average of 5.2 hits and 2.0 walks per game. In contrast, Rodriguez ranks 42nd and has a higher expected performance, with a 4.40 ERA that belies his potential for improvement.

Offensively, the Mets rank 17th in the league. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their impressive power with 40 home runs.

With the Mets slightly favored at -140 on the moneyline, the projections indicate they could exceed their implied team total of 4.54 runs. This game is critical for both teams, as the Mets aim to maintain their momentum while the Diamondbacks seek to capitalize on their offensive prowess against an average pitching performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Eduardo Rodriguez has relied on his cutter 5.1% less often this season (14.1%) than he did last season (19.2%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Gabriel Moreno has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 6.6% rate last season has dropped to 0% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Over his previous 3 starts, David Peterson has seen a substantial spike in his fastball spin rate: from 2118 rpm over the entire season to 2175 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Brandon Nimmo has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.70 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 100% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.41, New York Mets 4.41

• Date: April 29, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs
  • David Peterson - Mets

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