Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Pick – 4/30/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On April 30, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Mets are currently performing well, boasting a strong record of 21-9 this season, while the Diamondbacks sit at 15-14. In their previous game on April 29, the Mets secured a convincing 8-3 victory, extending their winning momentum. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are looking to bounce back after suffering the same fate against the Mets.

Brandon Waddell is projected to take the mound for New York, a lefty who has struggled so far this season, averaging only 4.7 innings pitched and allowing 2.4 earned runs, with concerning projections for hits and walks. In contrast, Arizona's Corbin Burnes, a right-handed pitcher, has had a mixed season, currently holding a 0-1 record with an ERA of 4.05. Despite this, Corbin has demonstrated flashes of brilliance, as seen in his last start where he pitched five innings with only one earned run and eight strikeouts.

While the Mets rank 17th offensively in MLB, their recent success suggests they have found their rhythm, especially with their best hitter performing at a high level. In the last week, he has an impressive .333 batting average and a 1.024 OPS, contributing significantly to the Mets' offensive output. The Diamondbacks, however, have a reliable hitter of their own, who has been on fire lately, boasting a .364 average and a 1.395 OPS over the last week.

With both teams looking to establish dominance in this series, this game appears evenly matched on paper. The projections indicate a tight contest, but with the Mets riding high from their recent success, they may have the upper hand as they continue to build on their strong start to the season.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Given that flyball pitchers have a significant advantage over flyball hitters, Corbin Burnes and his 46.3% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good spot in today's matchup matching up with 2 opposing FB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Bats such as Eugenio Suarez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brandon Waddell who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks today owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .319, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .334 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Waddell in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 45% ROI)
• Mark Vientos has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 34% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.57, New York Mets 4.01

• Date: April 30, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - D-Backs
  • Brandon Waddell - Mets

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