Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Pick – 4/16/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On April 16, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at LoanDepot Park, with both teams looking to gain momentum in this critical matchup. The Diamondbacks took the first game of the series, edging out the Marlins in a tightly contested battle. While the Marlins have been average this season with an 8-8 record, the Diamondbacks are performing well, boasting a 10-7 record and ranking as the 5th best offense in MLB.

Projected starters Max Meyer and Brandon Pfaadt will take the mound for their respective teams. Meyer, who has a solid 2.00 ERA, is regarded as an average pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system. However, his xFIP of 3.16 suggests he may have been a bit lucky thus far, indicating potential regression. On the other hand, Pfaadt has a 3.50 ERA but has some concerning underlying metrics, including a much higher 5.77 xERA, suggesting he could be due for a downturn as well.

The Marlins’ offense, ranked 14th overall, is led by a strong hitter who has been productive lately, recording 7 RBIs and 3 home runs in just four games. However, their 25th ranking in home runs shows a need for more power in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have excelled in batting average, ranking 7th and providing consistent run support for their pitching staff.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the odds favor the Diamondbacks with a moneyline of -160, but the Marlins could surprise given their home advantage and the recent form of their best hitters. Expect a competitive game as both teams aim to solidify their standings.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #22 HR venue among all stadiums in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Gabriel Moreno has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 6.6% rate last year has dropped off to 0% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Max Meyer has relied on his slider 7.2% more often this season (47.9%) than he did last year (40.7%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Xavier Edwards's average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86-mph mark last year has lowered to 81.8-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers, Matt Mervis).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 82 away games (+6.50 Units / 7% ROI)
• Griffin Conine has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.70 Units / 42% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.92, Miami Marlins 4.19

• Date: April 16, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Max Meyer - Marlins

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