Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 4/18/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 18, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in a tightly contested National League. The Cubs currently sit at 12-9, while the Diamondbacks are slightly ahead with a 12-7 record. Both teams feature strong offenses, with the Cubs ranking 4th in MLB and the Diamondbacks coming in at 2nd, making this matchup particularly intriguing.

In their last game, the Diamondbacks put on an impressive show, earning a dominant victory, which could give them momentum as they face the Cubs. The Cubs will rely on Colin Rea, who has had a stellar start to the season with a 1.00 ERA, but his underlying metrics suggest he may struggle moving forward. Rea’s projected performance indicates he may allow 3.7 earned runs, which could be problematic against a high-scoring Diamondbacks lineup.

On the other side, Arizona will send Corbin Burnes to the mound. Despite a rough start to the season evidenced by a 5.28 ERA, the projections suggest he may improve, as his 4.66 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky. Burnes is known for inducing ground balls, which could be crucial against a Cubs team that has showcased its power by ranking 4th in home runs this season.

With the Cubs' offense ranking as the 4th best in MLB and their bullpen rated 17th, they’ll need to capitalize on their opportunities early in the game. Meanwhile, Burnes's high walk rate may allow the Cubs to draw some free passes, giving them additional chances to score. As both teams aim to continue their strong starts, expect a competitive showdown at Wrigley Field.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Corbin Burnes in the 75th percentile among all starters in the league.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Chicago's #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

In the past 7 days, Michael Busch's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.5% up to 27.8%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be smart to expect worse results for the Chicago Cubs offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-luckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.80 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.10 Units / 8% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+9.20 Units / 115% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 6.32, Chicago Cubs 5.5

• Date: April 18, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - D-Backs
  • Colin Rea - Cubs

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