Detroit Red Wings vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction - November 7, 2026

Prediction

• ●- Recommended Position: Over Colorado Avalanche team total 3.5
• ●- Model Probability: 63%
• ●- Market Probability: 58%
• ●- Model Edge: 5%
• ●- Entry Threshold: -150
• ●- Model Confidence Based on Model Edge: 80/100
• ●- Why the Market Is Wrong: Colorado enters with one of the league’s strongest scoring profiles, averaging 4.13 goals per game, and it is facing a Detroit group that has allowed 3.00 goals per game while carrying a weaker penalty kill. Colorado also owns a clear shot-volume edge and has been more dangerous on special teams overall, which supports a higher team scoring expectation than the market is pricing in. The current number also leaves room for closing-line improvement if the matchup holds the expected Colorado goaltending edge and Detroit remains without full lineup stability.
• ●- Projected Score: Colorado Avalanche 4, Detroit Red Wings 2
• ●- Projected Total: 6

Model Projection

• ●Projected Score: Colorado Avalanche 4, Detroit Red Wings 2
• ●Projected Total: 6

Why This Position Stands Out

Colorado has been one of the most efficient offenses in the league through 16 games, pairing 4.13 goals per game with 30.5 shots per game. That kind of volume matters against a Detroit team that has been more middle-of-the-pack offensively and has allowed opponents to generate chances at a steadier rate. The Avalanche also bring a better power-play profile and stronger overall differential, which makes their team scoring path clearer than the full-game total alone. The available NHL.com lineup information shows Colorado with Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood in the goaltending mix and Josh Manson listed as injured, while Detroit’s latest status report lists John Gibson as questionable and says Daniil Tarasov is in line for more playing time. With Detroit’s starter not fully settled and Colorado at home with the better attack, the Avalanche team total is the cleaner angle than laying a heavy moneyline price.

Matchup Overview

Colorado has been the more explosive team to start the season, with 66 goals in 16 games and a strong power play that has helped drive scoring. The Avalanche also control more of the shot share than Detroit, which has helped them sustain pressure and create higher-end looks. At home, that profile tends to translate well, especially against an opponent that is giving up goals at a steadier clip. Detroit has been competitive but less consistent in finishing chances, producing 46 goals in 16 games while relying on strong goaltending stretches to stay in games. The Red Wings’ skaters have kept the faceoff battle close, but their penalty kill and overall defensive results lag Colorado’s current form. That combination points to a game where Colorado is more likely to control pace and generate enough offense to clear its team total.

Market Trends

• ●Colorado Avalanche are 10-7 against the puck line and 12-5 on over/under this season.
• ●Detroit Red Wings are 7-9 against the puck line and 9-8 on over/under this season.

Prediction Summary

Colorado should control this game at home and create enough pressure to finish with four goals. The Avalanche have the stronger offensive numbers, the better shot generation, and the cleaner special-teams profile, while Detroit brings a more modest scoring profile and a less reliable defensive base. With the goaltending situation for Detroit still unsettled and Colorado’s attack in better form, the best position is Colorado team total over 3.5, with a projected 4-2 Avalanche win.

Goaltending Matchup

No starting goalie has been confirmed at the time of writing. NHL.com’s lineup projections list Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood for Colorado, while Detroit’s recent injury update lists John Gibson as questionable and says Daniil Tarasov is in line for more playing time. Blackwood’s season line is 8 wins, a 2.80 goals-against average, and a .894 save percentage across 12 games, while Tarasov has 2 wins, a 1.74 goals-against average, and a .927 save percentage in 6 games. The goalie picture slightly favors Detroit in raw recent numbers, but Colorado’s scoring profile still points to the Avalanche getting to the net-front often enough to support the team total.