NFL
Seattle enters with a 15-5-0 ATS record and a 75.0% cover rate, plus a 17-game turnover margin of -3 that still compares favorably to New England’s negative ball-security profile. The Seahawks have allowed 17.2 points per game and 285.6 yards per game, both better than New England’s defensive numbers. That gives Seattle a firmer base if this game turns into a possession-by-possession contest. New England has been competitive against the number at 13-7-1 ATS, and the Patriots have also been slightly more prone to go under than over, which hints at a team that can keep games manageable. Still, their turnover margin of +3 is less convincing than Seattle’s broader defensive efficiency, and the Patriots allow more yards and more points per game than the Seahawks. That gap matters most if Seattle can dictate pace and limit mistakes.
Seattle has the stronger statistical case, the better ATS form, and the cleaner defensive profile, so the Seahawks are the side most likely to reward bettors. New England can keep the game close if it avoids giveaways, but Seattle’s edge in points allowed, yards allowed, and overall efficiency points to a home win by a modest margin. Final score projection: Seahawks 24, Patriots 20.
