COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Texas State enters with the better recent form and the more productive offense. The Bobcats have scored 145 points across four games, driven by 242.0 passing yards per game, 281.3 rushing yards per game, and 6.4 yards per play. San Diego State has scored 92 points in four games and has struggled to create consistent offense, averaging 23.0 points, 164.8 passing yards, and 155.3 rushing yards per game. Defensively, both teams have issues, but San Diego State has allowed 28.8 points and 412.8 yards per game, while Texas State has allowed 33.8 points and 469.3 yards per game. The difference is that Texas State’s offense gives it a higher ceiling and a better chance to force SDSU into chasing the game.
Texas State should win this game by separating with its offense, which has been far more efficient and explosive than San Diego State’s unit. The Bobcats average 36.3 points and 523.3 yards per game, while the Aztecs sit at 23.0 points and 320.0 yards per game. San Diego State’s defense has also given up 28.8 points per game, which makes it difficult to trust the Aztecs to keep pace for four quarters. My projection is Texas State Bobcats 38, San Diego State Aztecs 27, with the Bobcats covering the spread and the game landing above the projected total.
