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This is a good under look because the game sets up with one offense that has been better overall and one defense that has been stingy enough to slow the pace of scoring. Jacksonville State’s offense has generated 27.7 points per game, but Georgia Southern’s defense has held opponents to 11.0 points per game and 4.6 yards per play allowed. That kind of defensive output gives the under real support even if Jacksonville State lands somewhere near its recent scoring average. On the other side, Georgia Southern’s offense has averaged only 19.0 points per game and 3.9 yards per play this year, which makes it harder to expect enough sustained drives to push the total higher. Jacksonville State’s defense has allowed 23.0 points per game and 4.6 yards per play allowed, so Georgia Southern can contribute, but not enough to make this project into a clean over case. The market is accounting for the teams’ combined offensive yardage, but the defensive numbers and Georgia Southern’s slower scoring profile point to fewer total points than the board suggests.
Jacksonville State brings the stronger scoring profile into this game, averaging 27.7 points and 381.0 yards per game, with 241.0 passing yards and 140.0 rushing yards per game. The Gamecocks have also shown a more balanced offense overall, but their defense has given up 23.0 points per game and 306.7 yards per game, which keeps this from being a clean side handicap based on offense alone. Georgia Southern has been the opposite profile through two games. The Eagles are scoring 19.0 points per game and producing 389.5 yards per game, but much of that yardage has not translated into points. Their defense has been the stronger unit, allowing just 11.0 points per game, 232.0 yards per game, and 4.6 yards per play allowed. That defensive edge is the main reason the under stands out, even with Jacksonville State likely controlling more of the game flow.
Jacksonville State should have enough offensive success to win, but Georgia Southern’s defense and the Eagles’ low scoring output make the total the stronger betting angle. The projected final score is Jacksonville State Gamecocks 27, Georgia Southern Eagles 23, which lands below the market range and supports the under as the best value play.
