COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Boise State enters this game with a more stable profile on both the scoreboard and in efficiency metrics, while Colorado State’s results have been driven by a defense that has struggled to get off the field. Boise State is allowing 20.6 points per game and 350.4 total yards per game, with 99.1 rushing yards allowed per game and 251.3 passing yards allowed per game. Colorado State has been far more vulnerable, giving up 44.0 points per game, 535.3 total yards per game, 272.1 passing yards per game allowed, and 263.1 rushing yards per game allowed. On the other side of the ball, Boise State’s 6.3 yards per play and 4.8 opponent yards per play over the last three games suggest a steadier form than Colorado State, which has allowed 8.2 opponent yards per play this season and 8.9 over the last three games.
Boise State should control this game with efficiency and balance, while Colorado State’s defense is likely to keep the Broncos in scoring position for most of the night. The Rams have been involved in high-scoring games all season, but Boise State’s stronger defensive profile and Colorado State’s poor yards allowed numbers point to the Broncos doing most of the heavy lifting on the scoreboard. The projected final score is Boise State Broncos 45, Colorado State Rams 28, which supports an Over 68.5 position as the best value angle.
