Washington +4.5 (-110) over Michigan
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- Washington is 3-0 straight up and against the spread as an underdog this season and we will gladly take the points with them here.
- Michigan’s special teams is a complete liability and will help Washington stay within striking distance.
The College Football Playoff national championship game is set, as Washington vs Michigan will be the game that decides this year’s champion. With both teams winning their semifinal matchups in dramatic fashion, we could get another tight and tense matchup for the title. Or, we could get an anticlimactic blowout, who knows! Regardless, here is our breakdown of the CFP championship game between the Huskies and Wolverines.
Washington Huskies
The Washington Huskies came into the Sugar Bowl against the Texas Longhorns as underdogs, but won outright to remain unbeaten and get to this stage. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 430 yards, 125 of which went to Rome Odunze, while the defense of the Huskies did just enough to prevent a last-second touchdown that would have won the game for the Longhorns.
That victory was the first in the College Football Playoff for Washington as a program. But their lack of experience in championship games in the CFP era will not work against Washington in this game. They face a Michigan team that is also playing in its first title game since the advent of the playoff, giving Washington a level playing field to work with in this spot.
Washington has been an underdog three times this season, twice against Oregon and once against Texas, winning all three of those games outright. The Huskies are an underdog in this game as well, but the Dawgs have proven that they are more than capable of coming out on top in big games despite not being seen as the best team on the field.
Michigan Wolverines
The Michigan Wolverines came back from down a touchdown in the Rose Bowl, beating the Alabama Crimson Tide in overtime to reach the national championship game. This is Michigan’s first win in three tries as a College Football Playoff team under Jim Harbaugh. With an elite defense and running game, Michigan will undoubtedly like their chances to win their first natty since 1997.
To Michigan’s credit, they did a great job of doing more than running straight ahead and playing defense against the Crimson Tide in the semifinals. They used misdirection very effectively in the red zone to set up walk-in touchdowns in regulation, as Alabama blew coverages thanks to some creativity from the Wolverines. That will be something Washington has to keep in mind if they want to win a championship.
With that said, Michigan played far from a mistake-free game against Alabama. JJ McCarthy was lucky not to have thrown an interception on the Wolverines’ first possession of the game, while the special teams units for Michigan were flat-out liabilities. Jim Harbaugh’s team will need to clean a few things up if they are going to get the better of Penix and the Huskies here.
Keys to Washington vs Michigan
The number one key to this game for the Washington Huskies is going to be protecting Michael Penix Jr. in the pocket. Penix is great at getting the ball out quickly, but Michigan’s defense made life very difficult for Jalen Milroe in the Rose Bowl. The Huskies can’t afford similar struggles keeping their quarterback upright given how valuable Penix’s passing is to their success.
On the Michigan side, the big key to this game will be attention to detail. The Wolverines should have no problem bludgeoning the Huskies with runs up the middle. But the accuracy of McCarthy and the special teams play of the Wolverines could derail their national title hopes, as they nearly did in the semifinals against the Crimson Tide.
Meanwhile, both sides will have to overcome their lack of experience playing on the biggest stage in college football. Both of these teams have won games against quality competition with the public eye focused squarely on them. But neither roster is led by anyone with national championship experience and the team that handles this moment the best both physically and mentally could come out on top.
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Offense/Defense Defense/Offense Offense/Defense Defense/OffenseNCAAFB
Washington Huskies
Michigan Wolverines
Team Stats
Passing
WASH
Passing
MICH
23.2 CMP 20.2 32.1 ATT 33.5 72.4 CMP% 60.1 261.7 Y/G 216.3 8.2 Y/A 6.5 1.7 TD/G 1.5
WASH
Passing
MICH
16.2 CMP 14.6 29 ATT 23.7 55.7 CMP% 61.7 166.5 Y/G 129.1 5.7 Y/A 5.4 1.2 TD/G 0.9 Rushing
WASH
Rushing
MICH
32.5 ATT 29.6 128.8 Y/G 90.7 4.0 Y/A 3.1 1.1 TD/G 0.8
WASH
Rushing
MICH
35.5 ATT 37.4 161.8 Y/G 157.2 4.6 Y/A 4.2 1.5 TD/G 1.4 Special Teams
WASH
Special Teams
MICH
3.3 Punts-GM 4.2 42.0 Punt Avg 43.0 1.9 Kick Ret GM 1.8 22.6 Kick Ret Avg 20.6 1.0 Punt Ret GM 1.2 7.2 Punt Ret Avg 10.5 Betting Trends
WASH
Betting Trends
MICH
OVERALL OVERALL 3-0-0 Win/Loss/Tie 3-0-0 2-1-0 ATS W/L/P 3-0-0 31.67 Avg Score 27.67 27.67 Avg Opp Score 14.67 AWAY HOME 3-0-0 Win/Loss/Tie 3-0-0 2-1-0 ATS W/L/P 2-1-0 38.67 Avg Score 32.67 31.67 Avg Opp Score 19
WASH
Betting Trends
MICH
OVERALL OVERALL 5-0-0 Win/Loss/Tie 5-0-0 3-2-0 ATS W/L/P 4-1-0 30.4 Avg Score 27.6 26.2 Avg Opp Score 16.6 AWAY HOME 5-0-0 Win/Loss/Tie 5-0-0 3-2-0 ATS W/L/P 3-1-1 37.6 Avg Score 36.2 25.2 Avg Opp Score 14.2
WASH
Betting Trends
MICH
OVERALL OVERALL 10-0-0 Win/Loss/Tie 10-0-0 4-5-1 ATS W/L/P 8-2-0 32.8 Avg Score 37.7 27 Avg Opp Score 12 AWAY HOME 8-2-0 Win/Loss/Tie 9-1-0 5-5-0 ATS W/L/P 4-5-1 37.4 Avg Score 36.5 29.9 Avg Opp Score 16 Head to Head
Teams Last 10
