UNLV vs Boise State Mountain West Championship Game Prediction – 12/6/24

For the second year in a row, the Boise State Broncos and UNLV Rebels will battle for the Mountain West Conference championship. These teams went a combined 13-1 in MWC play this year and they are set to take part in a fascinating contrast of offensive styles to crown this year’s conference champion. Boise State is favored by 5.5 points ahead of this game, while oddsmakers have set the total at 58.5 points. Continue reading to get our college football picks for this UNLV vs Boise State matchup, which will take place on the blue turf of Boise, ID.

UNLV Looks to Avenge Last Year’s MWC Title Game Loss

The UNLV Rebels have qualified for the Mountain West Conference Championship Game via tiebreaker for the second year in a row. This year, they finished in a tie for second place in the conference standings with the Colorado State Rams, who they ranked higher than upon completion of the regular season. But the Rebels are looking for a different result in the conference championship game this season after losing to Boise State in the title game in 2023.

UNLV won their final four games of the regular season to lock up a spot in the Mountain West title game. The last of those wins came in their rivalry game with the Nevada Wolf Pack at home. That win solidified that the only conference loss of the season for UNLV would be against Boise State, who beat the Rebels 29-24 in Las Vegas in late October.

For UNLV to avenge that loss to Boise State and to beat the Broncos for a conference championship, they will need quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams to deliver through the air. Williams struggled throwing the football against Boise State in their first meeting of the season, completing just 12 of his 21 pass attempts for 179 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. He has to be more accurate to give his team a chance to win this rematch.

Boise State Seeks Second Straight Conference Title

Boise State is the only team in the Mountain West Conference to avoid losing a game in conference play this season. The Broncos have lost just once all year, with that loss coming by a field goal to an Oregon team that is the unanimous number one team in the country going into postseason play. Here, Boise State will look to remain perfect in the Mountain West, winning a conference title and potentially sealing up a top-four seed and a bye in the upcoming College Football Playoff.

The Broncos finished its regular season on a high note, beating Oregon State 34-18 in a non-conference matchup against an opponent from the smoldering husk of the Pac-12. Boise State had 465 yards of total offense in that game, 270 of which game on the ground, thanks in large part to Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty.

Jeanty will once again be the focal point of the Broncos offense in this conference championship game. However, the passing game of Boise State is not to be overlooked. Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen has thrown for over 2,500 yards this season and 21 touchdowns, with just three interceptions. His efficiency allows Jeanty room to operate, as opposing defenses have to respect the Broncos through the air, something Boise State will look to take advantage of against UNLV.

UNLV vs Boise State Best Bet

We will take the under in Friday’s UNLV vs Boise State matchup for the Mountain West Conference title. These teams combined for 53 points in their first meeting of the season. We expect Hajj-Malik Williams to struggle through the air for UNLV on the road here after being so inaccurate against Boise State in Vegas earlier in the season. Meanwhile, the Boise State offense will grind UNLV down with Jeanty to control this game while keeping it under the total.

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free NCAAFB picks here.