CFP Rankings Reaction: What Tuesday's Top 25 Means for 4 Teams
Updated November 11, 2026
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Updated November 11, 2026
The second edition of the College Football Playoff rankings was released Tuesday night, and once again, there's plenty to talk about.
For starters, 7-2 Alabama still seems too high at No. 3, even after its impressive road win over LSU last weekend. Indiana somehow dropped five spots from No. 4 to No. 9 despite not even playing a game, while Notre Dame jumped six spots to No. 5 after knocking off previously top-ranked Miami.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss and Ohio State both plummeted down the rankings after suffering double-digit home losses to Georgia and Oregon, respectively. Ole Miss fell nine spots to No. 19, while Ohio State dropped eight spots to No. 20.
But beyond the biggest surprises, Tuesday's rankings also gave us a better idea of how the selection committee views teams still fighting for a playoff spot.
Below, I'll take a closer look at four teams whose paths to the College Football Playoff look a little different after Tuesday's rankings: Oregon, Texas Tech, Wake Forest, and Kentucky.
I'll break down where each team stands, what needs to happen over the final few weeks, and what the current Polymarket prices tell us about their chances of making the playoff.
I think most people had written Oregon off after its 21-10 road loss to Illinois in Week 8, which dropped the Ducks to 4-3. For a team that reached the CFP semifinals last year and entered this season ranked No. 2 in the preseason AP Poll, it was hard to imagine them getting back into the playoff race.
But Dan Lanning and the Ducks aren't out of it just yet.
Oregon went into Columbus last Saturday and beat a Julian Sayin-less Ohio State team 41-28, with Dylan Raiola throwing for 257 yards and two touchdowns. The committee clearly took notice, moving the Ducks up seven spots to No. 16 in Tuesday's CFP rankings.
Oregon now has what appears to be a very manageable schedule the rest of the way, with Michigan at home, Michigan State on the road, and Washington at home.
If the Ducks win all three, they'll finish 9-3 and have a much better shot at making the playoff than anyone would've expected a few weeks ago. Polymarket currently gives them around a 28% chance of making the playoff.
An at-large bid would almost certainly require Oregon to win out and get some help from teams ahead of it. But there's another possibility, too.
At 4-2 in Big Ten play, the Ducks can still reach the conference championship game, potentially setting up a rematch with UCLA and a chance to earn an automatic playoff bid.
Here's the most likely scenario for that to happen:
That's a lot to ask, especially with Indiana currently favored by 7.5 points at home against USC this weekend. But hey, stranger things have happened in college football.
And considering Oregon was sitting at 4-3 just a few weeks ago, even having a realistic conversation about the Big Ten Championship Game is a pretty big turnaround.
Texas Tech is another team that got a nice bump in Tuesday's CFP rankings, moving up three spots from No. 15 to No. 12. But that had more to do with losses by teams around them than anything the Red Raiders did last weekend.
Texas Tech needed a fourth-quarter comeback to escape with a 53-48 home win over West Virginia, allowing 582 total yards and 7.8 yards per play in the process. Not exactly the kind of defensive performance you'd expect from a playoff contender.
Still, the Red Raiders are now 8-1. They haven't always passed the eye test like last year's team, but they keep finding ways to win. And that's a big reason why Polymarket currently gives them around a 29% chance of making the 12-team playoff.
The bigger question is whether the Big 12 can get two teams into the playoff this year, with undefeated No. 2 Utah looking like a pretty safe bet to make the field.
For now, Texas Tech controls its own fate. Win out, and the Red Raiders will clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game for the second straight season, potentially setting up a matchup with Utah and a chance to earn an automatic playoff bid.
But another regular-season loss would make things a lot more complicated. And that could happen as soon as this Saturday, with Texas Tech currently a 3.5-point underdog on the road against Oklahoma State.
If the Red Raiders do lose again, they'd likely need some help just to reach the conference championship game. Their wins over No. 14 Houston and No. 23 Arizona would certainly help their case for an at-large bid, but I'm not sure a 10-2 Texas Tech team would be enough to convince the committee to give the Big 12 a second spot.
For Texas Tech, winning the conference might not be the only way in, but it's looking like the safest path.
Wake Forest is in a similar spot to Texas Tech. Both teams are 8-1, and the Demon Deacons sit just one spot behind the Red Raiders at No. 13 in Tuesday's CFP rankings.
Wake Forest has been blowing teams out this season, winning by an average of 27.4 points per game. But the committee doesn't seem all that impressed, and the schedule probably has something to do with that.
According to Sports Reference, Wake Forest's strength of schedule ranks just 74th out of 138 FBS teams. The Demon Deacons also have only one win over a team with a winning record, coming against Louisville (6-3).
That said, Polymarket currently gives Wake Forest around a 36% chance of making the playoff, and I actually think the Demon Deacons have a couple of pretty realistic paths to get there:
We've seen the committee avoid punishing teams too much for losing conference championship games before. SMU in 2024 and Alabama in 2025 both made the playoff despite losing their conference title games. The same argument could apply to Texas Tech if it wins out before losing to Utah in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Still, I'd be a little nervous if I were a Wake Forest fan in that second scenario. An 11-2 record would look good, but with that strength of schedule, there's no guarantee the committee would give the ACC a second bid.
Kentucky was one of the biggest losers of Week 10, getting blown out 34-6 on the road against Tennessee. The committee didn't punish the Wildcats too harshly, though, dropping them just five spots from No. 6 to No. 11 in Tuesday's CFP rankings.
So, at 7-2, Kentucky is technically still in the 12-team playoff field. But Polymarket currently gives Will Stein's squad just a 22% chance of actually making it.
Why such a big difference? I think the biggest reason is that another loss is very possible.
Kentucky finishes the regular season with Florida at home, No. 22 Missouri on the road, and in-state rival Louisville at home. None of those games is a guaranteed win, especially the trip to Missouri.
And if the Wildcats do lose another game, would a 9-3 record be enough to make the playoff?
I wouldn't count on it, for a few reasons:
Of course, Kentucky can avoid that debate entirely by winning its final three games. At 10-2, with an SEC schedule and a current No. 11 ranking, the Wildcats would be a near lock to make the playoff.
But after what happened in Knoxville last weekend, I don't think Kentucky has much room left for another slip-up.
With three weeks left in the regular season, there's still plenty that could change in the playoff race. For more predictions, analysis, and updates throughout the rest of the season, you can check out our college football coverage.
