Arizona State vs Texas A&M Prediction & Preview: Is an Upset Brewing in College Station?
Updated September 10, 2026
Updated September 10, 2026
No. 10 Texas A&M and Arizona State meet in Week 2 on Saturday, September 12, with kickoff set for 12 p.m. ET at Kyle Field in College Station. Both teams cruised in their season openers, with the Aggies beating Missouri State 50-0 and the Sun Devils taking down Morgan State 70-7.
Texas A&M is coming off an 11-win season and its first College Football Playoff appearance, and the team enters Year 3 under Mike Elko with Marcel Reed back at quarterback. Arizona State went 8-5 last year, but Kenny Dillingham has built a reputation for pulling off upsets and knocking off ranked teams.
Below, we’ll break down our Arizona State vs Texas A&M prediction and the biggest storylines heading into this Week 2 matchup.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“I know 13.5 points is a lot to lay against a Kenny Dillingham team, but I really like Texas A&M at home here. Mike Elko is 11-0 against unranked opponents at Kyle Field, and this might be the best team he’s had in College Station. Arizona State lost a lot from last year’s team, while A&M brings back Marcel Reed at quarterback. I think the Aggies are just a little too talented on both sides of the ball for the Sun Devils to keep this within two touchdowns.”
Texas A&M -13.5 Priced Around 55¢
Polymarket currently prices Texas A&M around 55¢ to cover the 13.5-point handicap. Our model gives the Aggies roughly a 59% chance of covering, creating a 4% edge at the current price. The original model projection has Texas A&M winning 38-17, and getting the handicap below two touchdowns gives us a little extra breathing room.
This Could Be a Tough Matchup for Cutter Boley
Texas A&M's defense couldn't have looked much better in Week 1, holding Missouri State to just 67 total yards, the fewest allowed by an Aggies defense since 1978. Now they'll face Cutter Boley, who went 0-4 against ranked SEC opponents at Kentucky last season, with three of those losses coming by at least three touchdowns. Arizona State also lost some major pieces from last year's team, including quarterback Sam Leavitt, wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, and several starters in the secondary. That's a lot to replace before going into Kyle Field against a top-10 team.
Recommended Prediction:
Texas A&M -13.5
Current Market Price:
55¢
Model Cover Probability:
59%
Market-Implied Probability:
55%
Model Edge:
4%
Buy Up To:
58¢
Model Trade Confidence:
70/100
Cutter Boley couldn't have asked for a much better Arizona State debut. The Kentucky transfer completed 21 of 27 passes for 387 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions in the Sun Devils' 70-7 win, finishing with a ridiculous 271.5 passer rating.
But take a step back for a second. That performance came at home against FCS Morgan State, a team that went 4-8 last season and lost 60-0 to Toledo. Going on the road to face No. 10 Texas A&M at Kyle Field is a completely different test.
We saw Boley struggle in a similar spot at Kentucky last year. In his first road game of the season, he completed just 10 of 19 passes for 124 yards with two interceptions in a 35-13 loss to South Carolina, while taking six sacks. Saturday should tell us a lot more about where Boley and this new-look Arizona State offense really stand.
Boley will be facing a Texas A&M defense that was dominant in Week 1. The Aggies shut out Missouri State 50-0 and held the Bears to just 67 total yards — 30 through the air and 37 on the ground. Missouri State averaged only 1.7 yards per play, picked up four first downs, and turned the ball over three times.
Texas A&M returns around 47% of its defensive production from a unit that ranked fifth in the SEC last season at 307.4 yards allowed per game. There are still plenty of playmakers back, though, led by edge rusher Anto Saka and senior defensive tackle DJ Hicks, while San Diego State transfer Ryan Henderson gives the Aggies another threat off the edge.
There's plenty to be excited about on the other side of the ball, too. Marcel Reed is back after leading Texas A&M to the College Football Playoff last season, throwing for 3,169 yards and 25 touchdowns while adding 493 yards and six more scores on the ground.
The senior quarterback looked sharp in Week 1, completing 21 of 30 passes for 233 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions in just over three quarters of work. He also has plenty of help in the backfield with Rueben Owens II, who rushed for 639 yards and five touchdowns on 119 carries last season, averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
Owens picked up 77 yards on 17 carries in the opener, helping the Aggies finish with 236 rushing yards as a team.
One of the biggest questions for Arizona State is how they'll handle the 12th Man. Texas A&M is famous for treating its fans as an extra member of the team, and Kyle Field is one of the toughest places to play in college football. The Aggies drew 107,782 fans for their Week 1 win over Missouri State, setting a program record for a home opener.
Kenny Dillingham has a pretty good track record as an underdog, including a 26-22 win over No. 7 Texas Tech last season. That game was in Tempe, though, and Saturday will be a much different environment. I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona State keeps things close for a while, but I'm sticking with Texas A&M to pull away and win by at least two touchdowns.
For more picks and analysis throughout the season, check out our free daily college football predictions for every game on the schedule.
