Vanderbilt Commodores vs Saint Mary’s Gaels Prediction – 3/21/2025

The NCAA Tournament's first round features an intriguing contest between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Saint Mary's Gaels, scheduled for Friday, March 21, 2025, at 3:15 p.m. ET at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. This matchup pits Vanderbilt's dynamic offense against Saint Mary's disciplined defense, promising a compelling battle for basketball enthusiasts and bettors alike.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Saint Mary's Gaels Game Preview

Vanderbilt enters the tournament with a 20-12 record, showcasing a potent offense that averages 79.6 points per game, ranking them 48th nationally. The Commodores are led by guard Jason Edwards, who contributes 17.1 points per game, and forward Tyler Nickel, a sharpshooter hitting 40% from beyond the arc. Despite their offensive prowess, Vanderbilt's defense has been less consistent, allowing 74.8 points per game, placing them 263rd in the nation. Their recent form includes a first-round exit in the SEC Tournament at the hands of Texas, highlighting potential vulnerabilities.

On the other hand, Saint Mary's boasts a 28-5 record, underpinned by a formidable defense that permits only 60.7 points per game, ranking fifth nationally. The Gaels' offense is orchestrated by guard Augustas Marciulionis, who averages 14.2 points and 6.1 assists per game. Forward Paulius Murauskas anchors the frontcourt with 8.0 rebounds per game. Saint Mary's excels in rebounding, securing 39.8 boards per game with a differential of +10.6, the best in the country. Their disciplined play is evident in their low turnover rate of 9.2 per game. However, they are coming off a narrow loss to Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament final, which could impact their momentum.

Betting Insights

As of the latest odds, Saint Mary's is favored by 4.5 points, with a total set at 135.5 points. The Gaels' defensive strength suggests a lower-scoring game, aligning with their trend of the total going UNDER in 10 of their last 12 games. Conversely, Vanderbilt's high-scoring nature has led to the total going OVER in four of their last five games. Bettors should consider these contrasting trends when evaluating the over/under market.

Key betting trends include:

• Vanderbilt is 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games against WCC opponents.
• Saint Mary's is 1-5 ATS in their last six games, indicating potential challenges in covering spreads.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Saint Mary's Gaels Prediction

This matchup presents a classic contrast between Vanderbilt's high-paced offense and Saint Mary's methodical, defense-oriented approach. The Gaels' ability to control the tempo and dominate the boards could neutralize the Commodores' offensive threats. Saint Mary's rebounding superiority, particularly on the offensive glass, may lead to second-chance points that could be decisive.

Given Saint Mary's defensive efficiency and Vanderbilt's struggles against disciplined teams, the Gaels are well-positioned to cover the 4.5-point spread. The total of 135.5 points is a challenging call due to the teams' differing styles. However, considering Saint Mary's tendency to engage in lower-scoring games, the UNDER appears to be a prudent choice.

Final Prediction: Saint Mary's 68, Vanderbilt 61.

Bettors should monitor any late-breaking news or line movements leading up to the game to make informed decisions.