UAB Blazers vs North Texas Mean Green Prediction – 3/15/2025

The UAB Blazers and the North Texas Mean Green are set to clash in a pivotal American Athletic Conference (AAC) Tournament semifinal on March 15, 2025, at 5:00 PM ET at Dickies Arena. Both teams are coming off impressive quarterfinal victories and are eager to secure a spot in the championship game.

UAB Blazers vs. North Texas Mean Green Game Preview

The North Texas Mean Green, holding the second seed with a 24-7 overall record and a 14-4 mark in AAC play, have demonstrated consistency throughout the season. In their recent quarterfinal matchup, they dominated the Tulsa Golden Hurricane with a 77-59 victory, showcasing their defensive prowess by limiting Tulsa to a 34.1% shooting percentage from the field. Offensively, North Texas averages 68.2 points per game, shooting 45.5% from the field and 36.2% from beyond the arc. Their free-throw accuracy stands at 77.4%, and they excel on the boards with a total rebounding percentage of 52.9%, ranking them 47th nationally. Defensively, they allow just 59.5 points per game, with opponents shooting 41.2% from the field and 30.5% from three-point range.

On the other side, the UAB Blazers, the third seed with a 21-11 overall record and a 13-5 conference record, have been on a strong run, winning six of their last eight games. They are coming off a commanding 94-77 win over the East Carolina Pirates, where they outrebounded their opponents 43-29. UAB boasts a high-powered offense, averaging 83.0 points per game with a field goal percentage of 46.4% and a three-point percentage of 34.4%. Their free-throw shooting is solid at 75.9%, and they rank 29th nationally with a total rebounding rate of 53.7%. Senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg leads the team with 17.1 points per game, shooting 54.4% from the field, 33.9% from three-point range, and 74.4% from the free-throw line. Defensively, the Blazers concede 76.6 points per game, with opponents shooting 46.0% from the field and 35.7% from beyond the arc.

Betting Insights

In their two regular-season encounters, UAB and North Texas each secured a victory, with both games decided by a margin of three points. This suggests a closely contested matchup. According to KenPom's net ratings, North Texas ranks 68th with a +12.03 net rating, while UAB stands at 119th with a +4.27 net rating. This indicates a slight edge for North Texas. Additionally, North Texas has covered the spread in 6 of their last 10 home games, while UAB has covered in 7 of their last 10 games overall. The over has been hit in 9 of UAB's last 10 games, reflecting their high-scoring nature. Given these trends, bettors might consider North Texas to cover the spread and the total points to go over.

UAB Blazers vs. North Texas Mean Green Prediction

Considering the statistical profiles and recent performances of both teams, this semifinal is poised to be a tightly contested battle. North Texas's defensive strength, allowing just 59.5 points per game, will be tested against UAB's potent offense, which averages 83.0 points per game. The rebounding battle will be crucial, with both teams excelling on the boards. Given North Texas's slightly superior net rating and defensive capabilities, they may have a slight advantage. However, UAB's offensive firepower cannot be overlooked. In a game that could go down to the wire, North Texas's defense might be the deciding factor. Therefore, the prediction leans towards North Texas edging out a victory, covering the spread, with the total points likely going over due to UAB's high-scoring tendencies.