Troy Trojans vs Kentucky Wildcats Prediction – 3/21/2025

The NCAA Tournament's first round features an intriguing contest between the No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats and the No. 14 seed Troy Trojans. Scheduled for Friday, March 21, 2025, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, this game presents a classic matchup between a storied program and a rising underdog.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Troy Trojans Game Preview

Kentucky enters the tournament with a 22-11 record, showcasing one of the nation's most potent offenses, averaging 85.3 points per game. The Wildcats have connected on 317 three-pointers this season, ranking third in program history, and have hit 10 or more threes in 18 games. Leading the charge is Otega Oweh, who averages 16.2 points per game and has been particularly effective recently, averaging 20.3 points over his last four games. However, the team will be without point guard Jaxson Robinson due to a season-ending wrist injury.

On the other hand, Troy boasts a 23-10 record and enters the tournament on a six-game winning streak, including a 94-81 victory over Arkansas State to clinch the Sun Belt Conference title. The Trojans average 73.9 points per game and are led by Tayton Conerway, the Sun Belt Player of the Year, who contributes 14.3 points per game. Defensively, Troy allows just 65.4 points per game, ranking 24th nationally, and excels in creating turnovers, averaging 9.4 steals per game.

Betting Insights

As of the latest odds, Kentucky is favored by 11.5 points, with an over/under set at 152.5 points. The Wildcats' high-scoring offense contrasts with the Trojans' stout defense, making the total points line particularly intriguing. Bettors should consider the following trends:

• Kentucky has a 2-5 record against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games.
• The total has gone over in five of Kentucky's last six games.
• Troy has covered the spread in their last six games.
• The total has gone over in six of Troy's last seven games.

These trends suggest a potential for a high-scoring game, with Troy having a strong record against the spread.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Troy Trojans Prediction

While Kentucky's offensive prowess is formidable, Troy's recent form and defensive capabilities cannot be overlooked. The Trojans' ability to force turnovers and control the tempo could disrupt the Wildcats' rhythm. Given Kentucky's recent struggles against the spread and Troy's momentum, the Trojans are well-positioned to cover the 11.5-point spread. Therefore, the prediction is for Kentucky to win the game, but Troy to cover the spread, with a final score of approximately 81-70 in favor of Kentucky.