Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Arkansas Razorbacks Pick – 3/27/2025

The Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Arkansas Razorbacks are set to face off in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, March 27, 2025, at 10:09 p.m. ET. This highly anticipated game will take place at the Chase Center in San Francisco, with both teams aiming to secure a spot in the Elite Eight.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Game Preview

Texas Tech enters the matchup with a 27-8 record, having secured victories over UNC Wilmington (82-72) and Drake (77-64) in the first two rounds of the tournament. The Red Raiders finished second in the SEC regular season standings with a 15-5 conference record. Their recent performances have showcased a balanced attack, combining efficient offense with solid defense.

Leading the charge for Texas Tech is sophomore forward JT Toppin, who averages 18.1 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. Junior forward Darrion Williams contributes 14.7 points and 5.4 rebounds, while freshman guard Christian Anderson adds 10.5 points per game. Senior guard Elijah Hawkins orchestrates the offense, averaging 9.4 points and 6.5 assists per contest.

On the other side, Arkansas boasts a 22-13 record, having upset Kansas (79-72) and St. John's (75-66) to reach the Sweet 16. The Razorbacks finished ninth in the SEC with an 8-10 conference record but have found their stride in the postseason. Their defense has been particularly impressive, holding St. John's to 28% shooting, including a mere 9.1% from beyond the arc.

Junior forward Adou Thiero leads Arkansas with 15.6 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. Freshman guard Boogie Fland contributes 14.2 points and 5.4 assists, while senior guard Johnell Davis and sophomore guard D.J. Wagner add 11.4 and 11.1 points per game, respectively. Thiero is set to return to the lineup after missing time since February 22, providing a significant boost to the Razorbacks.

Betting Insights

As of the latest reports, Texas Tech is favored by 5.5 points over Arkansas. The over/under for the game is set at 148 points. Bettors should consider the following factors:

• Offensive Efficiency: Texas Tech ranks 5th in offensive efficiency, averaging 80.9 points per game on 47.0% shooting. Their ability to score consistently makes them a formidable opponent.
• Defensive Prowess: Arkansas ranks 17th in defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to score 71.2 points per game on 42.0% shooting. Their recent defensive performances have been key to their tournament success.
• Tempo: Texas Tech operates at a slower pace, ranking 262nd in adjusted tempo. This deliberate style may limit the number of possessions, potentially affecting the total points scored.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction

Considering the strengths and recent performances of both teams, this Sweet 16 matchup promises to be a compelling contest. Texas Tech's efficient offense, led by JT Toppin and Darrion Williams, will challenge Arkansas's stout defense. The return of Adou Thiero adds depth and scoring ability to the Razorbacks, potentially offsetting the Red Raiders' offensive firepower.

Given Texas Tech's slower tempo and Arkansas's defensive capabilities, the game is likely to be a low-scoring affair. The Red Raiders' ability to control the pace and execute efficiently on offense gives them a slight edge. Therefore, the prediction is that Texas Tech will cover the 5.5-point spread, and the total points scored will be under 148.

Final Score Prediction: Texas Tech 72, Arkansas 65