Updated February 14, 2026
This Sunday’s American Athletic Conference game between the South Florida Bulls and the Florida Atlantic Owls is important for both teams’ postseason hopes in the final stretch of the 2025-26 season. South Florida (17-8, 9-3 AAC) enters this road game off a convincing 89-75 win over FAU in late January and looks to continue its strong run toward a top seed in the AAC tournament. Florida Atlantic (14-11, 6-6 AAC) has struggled of late, dropping five consecutive games and looking to find its footing at home. Before tip-off from Boca Raton, you will find my South Florida vs Florida Atlantic prediction right here.
Pick: South Florida -4 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
South Florida’s recent momentum has been one of the more interesting storylines in the AAC. The Bulls posted a strong 89-75 victory over FAU in their first meeting this season, breaking a trend of close games and highlighting their ability to pull away in the second half. USF’s offense has been productive, averaging near 90 points over recent games, helping the Bulls to win three straight games and get to the top of the AAC standings.
Florida Atlantic has hit a rough patch. The Owls have lost their last five games overall and are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six outings. Their overall record reflects inconsistency, and recent losses suggest some offensive stagnation since their hot start earlier in the conference slate. FAU’s defense has occasionally kept games competitive, but without production from its top options on offense, closing the gap on better squads has proven difficult.
Past meetings
ATS and O/U records
Home/road splits
Score Projection: South Florida 84 – Florida Atlantic 78 ATS PRO
Win Probability: South Florida 60%, Florida Atlantic 40% ATS PRO
South Florida’s balance on offense and strong road form make them the logical choice to cover the spread in Boca Raton. Florida Atlantic’s recent slump and inability to consistently defend against high-scoring offenses give the Bulls an edge in both tempo control and scoring potential. I am going to lay the points with the Bulls in this AAC matchup.
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