San Diego State Aztecs vs North Carolina Tar Heels Pick – 3/18/2025

The NCAA Tournament's First Four brings an exciting matchup between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the San Diego State Aztecs. Both teams are vying for a spot in the main draw, with the winner set to face Ole Miss in the first round. This game is scheduled for Tuesday, March 18, 2025, at 9:10 pm Eastern Time at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. San Diego State Aztecs Game Preview

North Carolina enters the tournament with a 22-13 record, having finished 13-7 in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). The Tar Heels have been on an upward trajectory, winning eight of their last ten games. Their recent performance includes a narrow 74-71 loss to top-ranked Duke in the ACC semifinals. Guard RJ Davis leads the team, averaging 17.0 points per game, while Ian Jackson and Seth Trimble contribute 12.4 and 11.6 points per game, respectively. The team boasts a strong offense, ranking 33rd nationally with an average of 80.8 points per game.

San Diego State, with a 21-9 record, secured a spot in the tournament despite a quarterfinal loss to Boise State in the Mountain West Conference tournament. The Aztecs are known for their defensive prowess, allowing just 63.6 points per game, placing them 14th nationally in scoring defense. Offensively, they average 70.9 points per game. Key players include Nick Boyd, who leads with 13.4 points and 4.0 assists per game, and Miles Byrd, contributing 12.6 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. The return of Magoon Gwath, the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, from a knee injury is expected to bolster their defense.

Betting Insights

• Point Spread: North Carolina is favored by 4.5 points.
• Over/Under: The total points line is set at 142.5.

North Carolina has been strong against the spread (ATS) recently, covering in eight of their last ten games. In contrast, San Diego State has struggled, covering in only four of their last ten games. The Tar Heels' high-scoring offense contrasts with the Aztecs' defensive style, making the over/under line a point of interest for bettors.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. San Diego State Aztecs Prediction

This matchup presents a classic offense-versus-defense scenario. North Carolina's dynamic offense, led by RJ Davis, will test San Diego State's disciplined defense. The Aztecs' ability to control the game's tempo and limit scoring opportunities will be crucial. However, the Tar Heels' recent form and offensive firepower give them an edge. Expect North Carolina to cover the spread and the total points to lean towards the over, given the contrasting styles of play.