Saint Louis Billikens vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Pick – 3/18/2025

The Saint Louis Billikens are set to face the Arkansas State Red Wolves in the first round of the National Invitation Tournament (NIT) on Tuesday, March 18, 2025, at 9:00 pm Eastern Time. This matchup features two teams with contrasting seasons, each aiming to extend their postseason journey.

Saint Louis Billikens vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Game Preview

The Saint Louis Billikens concluded their regular season with a 19-14 record, including an 11-7 mark in the Atlantic 10 Conference. Their performance was marked by inconsistency, particularly on the road, where they posted a 4-8 record. The Billikens' season ended in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament with a 72-64 loss to Loyola Chicago.

Offensively, Saint Louis averaged 74.2 points per game, ranking them 173rd nationally. They demonstrated efficiency from the field, shooting 47.5%, and from beyond the arc at 35.3%. The team is led by senior guard Gibson Jimerson, who averages 18.0 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. Center Robbie Avila contributes 17.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game, while guard Isaiah Swope adds 17.1 points and 4.3 assists per game. Notably, Saint Louis is the only Division I program with three players averaging 17.0 points or more per game.

Defensively, the Billikens allow 70.3 points per game, placing them 127th nationally. They have been effective in limiting opponents' shooting, holding them to 42% from the field and 33% from three-point range.

On the other hand, the Arkansas State Red Wolves finished their season with a 24-10 record and a 13-5 mark in the Sun Belt Conference. They were formidable at home, boasting a 13-2 record. The Red Wolves advanced to the Sun Belt Tournament championship game but fell to Troy with a 94-81 defeat.

Arkansas State's offense is potent, averaging 79.2 points per game, ranking them 56th nationally. They are aggressive from three-point range, attempting 28.9 shots per game. Senior guard Taryn Todd leads the team with 14.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game. Guard Joseph Pinion adds 12.5 points and 4.1 rebounds per game, while forward Kobe Julien contributes 11.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game.

Defensively, the Red Wolves allow 70.1 points per game, ranking 124th nationally. They excel in rebounding, averaging 40.9 per game, placing them sixth in the nation.

Betting Insights

• Spread: Arkansas State -4.5
• Over/Under: 153.5

Arkansas State has been strong against the spread (ATS), covering in 17 of their 28 games. Saint Louis, however, has struggled, with a 12-19 ATS record. The Red Wolves' home dominance and the Billikens' road struggles suggest a favorable position for Arkansas State to cover the spread.

Regarding the total points, both teams have demonstrated the ability to score, but their defensive capabilities and the significance of the postseason may lead to a more controlled pace. Historical trends indicate that many of Saint Louis' recent night games against non-ranked opponents have produced totals of 150 or fewer points.

Saint Louis Billikens vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Prediction

Considering the current form, home advantage, and statistical analysis, Arkansas State appears well-positioned to secure a victory and cover the -4.5 spread. Their robust home performance, coupled with Saint Louis' road difficulties, supports this outlook. Additionally, the combined defensive strengths of both teams suggest that the total points may fall under the 153.5 line.

Final Prediction: Arkansas State Red Wolves 78, Saint Louis Billikens 70

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