South Carolina -11.5 (-110) over NC State
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- South Carolina is the most physical team in women’s college basketball, which will make them very hard to score on in the paint.
- We are expecting some regression to the mean after NC State shot over 40% from three-point range in their last two games, while their opponents shot 20% or worse.
The 2024 Women’s Final Four will begin on Friday with an NC State vs South Carolina matchup from Cleveland, OH. South Carolina comes into this game with an undefeated record, while NC State will look to win as the lower seed for the third game in a row. The Gamecocks are heavy favorites, though, as they look to get back to the national championship game for the second time in three seasons.
NC State Wolfpack
The NC State Wolfpack are coming off of two straight upsets to reach the Final Four. They defeated the Stanford Cardinal and Texas Longhorns, the top-two seeds in their regional, to get to Cleveland. Now they will try and pull off their biggest upset yet in order to make it to the national championship game, though they face an uphill climb to get there.
If NC State is going to slay the dragon that is South Carolina, three-point shooting and three-point defense will be their tickets. The Wolfpack have held a decided edge in three-point shooting percentage over their last two games, holding each of their last two opponents to 20% or worse from long distance. But South Carolina just beat Oregon State by double-digits while struggling to hit threes, so even that might not be enough to tilt things in the favor of the Wolfpack on Friday.
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina has not lost a game this season, sitting at 36-0 entering the Final Four in Cleveland. The Gamecocks have won three of their four NCAA Tournament games by double-digits, including their Elite 8 win over Oregon State that moved them into this round. The defense and physicality are undeniably advantages for the Gamecocks heading into this game, with the question being whether or not they can cool off the red-hot Wolfpack offense.
We do not anticipate South Carolina struggling to get stops in this Final Four matchup. The Gamecocks have held three of their tournament opponents under 60 points, which helped them to win by double-digits despite shooting just 33.3% against Oregon State. Barring a complete meltdown from Dawn Staley’s team, we should see them face either Iowa or UConn for the national title on Sunday.
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