NC State vs North Carolina College Basketball Prediction 1/21/23

Vincent Senick on January 21st, 2023

An all-North Carolina showdown is set for Saturday night when the NC State Wolf Pack (15-4, 5-3 in ACC) visit the North Carolina Tar Heels (13-6, 5-3). Both teams are battling for the double-bye in the NCAA Tournament, and this could be a crucial result come the end of the season. Below is my college basketball prediction for NC State vs North Carolina.

NC State vs North Carolina Betting Pick

ℹ️ The Pick:	North Carolina -5.5
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This game will be played at the Dean E. Smith Center at 5:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 21, 2023.

Why Bet North Carolina -5.5

✅ North Carolina is 10-0 straight up in their last 10 home games.

✅ The Tar Heels are 8-1 straight up in their last nine games against the Wolfpack.

✅ NC State is 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 road games.

NCAABB

Jan 21, 2023 05:00 PM

NC State Wolfpack

North Carolina Tar Heels

Spread Pick Consensus

N/A NCST

NCAR N/A

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+224

-281

N/A NCST

NCAR N/A

Total Pick Consensus

153.0/

153.0/

N/A UN

OV N/A

Team Stats Per Game

Offense/Defense

NCST	Team Stats Per Game	NCAR
86.67	PTS GM	74.33
60.33	FGA	66
.530	FG%	.414
.286	3PT%	.321
12	ORB	9.67
7.33	DRB	8.11
34	TRB	34
25	FTA	14
.693	FT%	.786
17	AST	11.67
4.67	BLK	3.33
11	TO	11
20.33	PF	18.67

Defense/Offense

NCST	Team Stats Per Game	NCAR
69.33	PTS GM	95.33
56.67	FGA	68
.424	FG%	.466
.236	3PT%	.351
13	ORB	12.67
6.78	DRB	10.11
33.33	TRB	43
21	FTA	27
.810	FT%	.852
8.67	AST	17
1.67	BLK	5.33
17	TO	8.67
22	PF	16.33

Advanced Game Stats

Offense/Defense

NCST	Advanced Game Stats	NCAR
70.9	Pace	75.4
122.2	Off.Rate	98.6
.414	FTr	.212
.309	3PAr	.409
.600	TS%	.512
50.5	TRB%	44.2
53.1	AST%	42.7
13.6	STL%	4.4
12.2	BLK%	7.9
.575	eFG%	.480
13.2	TOV%	13.2
37.1	ORB%	24.2
.287	TF/FGA	.167

Defense/Offense

NCST	Advanced Game Stats	NCAR
70.9	Pace	75.4
97.8	Off.Rate	126.4
.371	FTr	.397
.324	3PAr	.377
.520	TS%	.590
49.5	TRB%	55.8
36.1	AST%	53.7
8.5	STL%	9.3
4.0	BLK%	13.7
.462	eFG%	.532
20.3	TOV%	9.7
37.1	ORB%	34.2
.300	TF/FGA	.338

Betting Trends

NCST	Betting Trends	NCAR
OVERALL		OVERALL
3-0-0	Win/Loss/Tie	2-1-0
2-1-0	ATS W/L/P	1-2-0
78	Avg Score	70
72	Avg Opp Score	62.67
AWAY		HOME
2-1-0	Win/Loss/Tie	3-0-0
2-1-0	ATS W/L/P	1-2-0
71.67	Avg Score	80.33
71	Avg Opp Score	69

NCST	Betting Trends	NCAR
OVERALL		OVERALL
4-1-0	Win/Loss/Tie	4-1-0
3-2-0	ATS W/L/P	2-3-0
76.4	Avg Score	75.8
70.8	Avg Opp Score	66.2
AWAY		HOME
3-2-0	Win/Loss/Tie	5-0-0
3-2-0	ATS W/L/P	2-3-0
72.8	Avg Score	84.2
70.8	Avg Opp Score	70

NCST	Betting Trends	NCAR
OVERALL		OVERALL
8-2-0	Win/Loss/Tie	8-2-0
4-5-1	ATS W/L/P	5-5-0
78.7	Avg Score	79.7
70.9	Avg Opp Score	69.3
AWAY		HOME
4-6-0	Win/Loss/Tie	10-0-0
5-5-0	ATS W/L/P	4-6-0
73	Avg Score	81.9
75.5	Avg Opp Score	68.1

Head to Head

DATE	TM	LN	ML	SC
02/26/2022	NCAR NCST	151.0 4.0	-182 +150	84 74
01/29/2022	NCST NCAR	152.0 -7.0	+255 -325	80 100
01/23/2021	NCST NCAR	149.5 -6.0	+213 -268	76 86
12/22/2020	NCAR NCST	145.0 2.0	-136 +113	76 79
02/25/2020	NCST NCAR	148.5 -2.0	+110 -130	79 85
01/27/2020	NCAR NCST	147.5 -5.5	+210 -263	75 65
02/05/2019	NCST NCAR	164.5 -10.0	+450 -600	96 113
01/08/2019	NCAR NCST	173.5 -1.5	+105 -125	90 82
02/10/2018	NCAR NCST	161.0 4.0	-175 +155	96 89
01/27/2018	NCST NCAR	161.0 -12.5	+650 -1100	95 91

Teams Last 10

DATE	TM	LN	ML	SC
04/06/24	NCST PUR	227.2 -14.7	+529 -704	78 98
03/31/24	NCST DUKE	77.5 -3.8	+132 -166	41 35
03/29/24	NCST MARQ	83.2 -4.1	+140 -178	37 32
03/21/24	NCST TXTECH	120.2 -3.7	+133 -164	65 55
03/16/24	NCST NCAR	41.3 -2.8	+110 -152	24 22
03/14/24	NCST DUKE	51.1 -3.9	+165 -235	26 24
03/13/24	NCST SYRA	131.0 -1.3	+89 -108	72 56
03/12/24	LOU NCST	246.5 -15.7	+633 -867	140 155
03/09/24	NCST PITT	58.7 -2.6	+90 -113	29 32
03/04/24	DUKE NCST	107.2 3.0	-191 +152	56 46

DATE	TM	LN	ML	SC
03/28/24	ALA NCAR	231.8 -6.0	+209 -257	119 116
03/23/24	MST NCAR	107.0 -3.4	+119 -147	52 64
03/21/24	WAG NCAR	109.2 -21.3	+1575 -7403	51 74
03/16/24	NCST NCAR	41.3 -2.8	+110 -152	24 22
03/15/24	PITT NCAR	156.8 -8.5	+280 -363	69 77
03/14/24	FLST NCAR	55.3 -3.7	+161 -230	24 32
03/09/24	NCAR DUKE	60.0 -1.8	+73 -90	34 32
03/05/24	ND NCAR	209.4 -23.9	+1589 -3332	76 126
03/02/24	NCST NCAR	141.7 -10.1	+433 -622	64 72
02/26/24	MIA NCAR	226.7 -21.3	+1160 -2082	104 110

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NC State Wolfpack

Last time out, NC State visited the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and left with a 78-66 win. The Yellow Jackets battled in the first half, but the Wolfpack were still able to built a five-point advantage at the break. It was never close again as NC State continued to build their lead in the final 20 minutes. NC State trailed by as many as 10 points, led by as much as 16, and covered the -5.5-point spread.

Terquavion Smith had 25 points, three rebounds, five assists, and two blocks on the night. Jarkel Joiner added 19 points, eight rebounds, three assists, and one steal in the victory.

Through 19 games, NC State is scoring 79.5 points per game, shooting 45.4% from the field, and assisting on 14.3 made shots. The Wolfpack are allowing 68.4 points, grabbing 38.0 rebounds, blocking 4.7 shots, and stealing the ball 8.7 times.

North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina hosted the Boston College Eagles and sleepwalked to a 72-64 win. This was a comfortable win for the Tar Heels but they never looked like they could hit their second gear and put the Eagles away for good. North Carolina never trailed, led by as many as 11 points, and could not cover the -14.0-point spread.

Armando Bacot had 20 points, 16 rebounds, three assists, one steal, and one block on the night. R.J. Davis added 18 points, three assists, and one steal in the victory.

After 19 games, North Carolina is scoring 79.6 points per game, shooting 45.8% from the field, and assisting on 12.8 made shots. The Tar Heels are allowing 72.4 points, grabbing 39.4 rebounds, blocking 3.9 shots, and stealing the ball 6.4 times.