Kansas State Wildcats vs Baylor Bears Prediction – 3/12/2025

The Kansas State Wildcats and the Baylor Bears are set to clash in the second round of the Big 12 Conference Tournament on Wednesday, March 12, 2025, at 7:00 p.m. ET at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. This matchup features the No. 10 seed Wildcats, who finished the regular season with a 9-11 conference record, against the No. 7 seed Bears, who concluded at 10-10 in Big 12 play. Baylor secured a victory over Kansas State earlier this season with a 70-62 win in January.

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears Game Preview

Kansas State enters this contest following a 71-66 triumph over Arizona State, advancing them to the second round of the tournament. The Wildcats have demonstrated resilience at neutral venues, boasting a 3-1 record this season. Their defensive prowess has been notable, ranking 134th in opponent two-point shooting percentage (49.9%) and 61st in opponent three-point shooting percentage (31.6%). However, their defensive rebounding has been a concern, with a 68.8% rate placing them 318th nationally, which could be problematic against Baylor's strong offensive rebounding.

Baylor, on the other hand, has faced challenges toward the end of their season, losing four of their last six games. Despite this, the Bears have maintained a solid offensive performance, averaging 75.7 points per game (100th nationally) with a deliberate pace of 68.6 possessions per game (260th). Their three-point shooting stands at 34.9% (123rd), and they excel in offensive rebounding, ranking 36th with a 10.7% rate. This combination allows them to capitalize on scoring opportunities effectively.

Betting Insights

• Point Spread: Baylor is favored by 6.5 points.
• Over/Under: The total points line is set at 136.5.
• Moneyline: Baylor -260, Kansas State +210.

These odds suggest that Baylor is expected to win, with a 72.2% implied probability. However, Kansas State's recent performance and defensive capabilities indicate they could cover the spread.

Betting Trends

• Kansas State has an 11-6 record against the spread (ATS) as an underdog this season.
• Baylor is 9-11 ATS when favored.
• The Wildcats have won two of their last three games against the Bears by an average of seven points.
• Kansas State has a 5-10 over/under record following a win, suggesting a tendency toward lower-scoring games after victories.

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears Prediction

Considering Kansas State's strong defensive performance and Baylor's recent struggles, this game is likely to be competitive. The Wildcats' ability to limit opponents' shooting percentages could disrupt Baylor's offensive rhythm. Additionally, Kansas State's success in covering the spread as underdogs adds value to their position. While Baylor's offensive rebounding is a strength, Kansas State's defense may mitigate this advantage. Therefore, the prediction leans toward Kansas State covering the +6.5 spread, with a final score projection of Baylor 68, Kansas State 64.