Arkansas State Red Wolves vs North Texas Mean Green Prediction – 3/23/2025

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are set to face the North Texas Mean Green on Sunday, March 23, 2025, at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time at the UNT Coliseum in Denton, Texas. This matchup marks their first encounter since March 2013, when North Texas secured a decisive 74-50 victory. Both teams have demonstrated strong performances this season, setting the stage for an exciting contest.

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. North Texas Mean Green Game Preview

Arkansas State enters the game with a 24-10 record, showcasing a balanced performance both at home (14-2) and on the road (7-5). The Red Wolves have been particularly effective offensively, averaging 79.2 points per game, ranking them 57th nationally. Their offensive strategy heavily relies on three-point shooting, with an average of 28.9 attempts per game, placing them 21st in the nation. However, their shooting accuracy stands at 42%, ranking 313th, indicating potential challenges in shot efficiency.

Defensively, Arkansas State allows an average of 70.8 points per game, ranking 137th nationally. They excel in rebounding, averaging 40.8 rebounds per game, which places them 14th in the country. This strength on the boards could be a significant factor in controlling the game's tempo and limiting second-chance opportunities for their opponents.

North Texas boasts a 25-8 record, with an impressive 16-1 record at home. The Mean Green's success is largely attributed to their formidable defense, allowing only 59.7 points per game, ranking them 4th nationally. Offensively, they average 68.1 points per game, ranking 382nd, indicating a more defense-oriented approach. Their shooting efficiency is higher than Arkansas State's, with a field goal percentage of 45%, ranking 157th.

In terms of rebounding, North Texas averages 32.8 rebounds per game, ranking 370th nationally. This disparity in rebounding could be a critical factor, especially against a strong rebounding team like Arkansas State.

Betting Insights

As of the latest available data, the betting odds for this game are as follows:

• Point Spread: North Texas favored by 4.5 points
• Over/Under Total: 136.5 points
• Moneyline: Arkansas State +150, North Texas -184

Recent betting trends indicate that Arkansas State has been effective against the spread (ATS) in road games, with a 5-3-2 record in their last ten away games. Conversely, North Texas has a 5-4-1 ATS record in their last ten home games. Notably, the total has gone over in 5 of Arkansas State's last 5 games, suggesting a trend towards higher-scoring contests.

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. North Texas Mean Green Prediction

This matchup presents a classic contrast between a high-scoring offense and a stifling defense. Arkansas State's ability to score, particularly from beyond the arc, will be tested against North Texas's disciplined defensive unit. The Red Wolves' rebounding advantage could provide them with additional scoring opportunities, potentially offsetting their shooting inefficiencies.

North Texas's home-court advantage and defensive prowess make them a formidable opponent. However, their lower offensive output and rebounding challenges could be exploited by Arkansas State's aggressive playstyle.

Considering these factors, the game is expected to be closely contested. While North Texas's defense is likely to limit Arkansas State's scoring to some extent, the Red Wolves' rebounding and three-point shooting could keep them competitive. Bettors might find value in considering Arkansas State to cover the spread, with the total points potentially leaning towards the over, given recent trends.

Final Score Prediction: North Texas 67, Arkansas State 62